# Flood Forecast



## KEN W (Feb 22, 2002)

New flood forecast just came out.Fargo has a 50-50 chance of seeing 38 ft.That would be a top 5 flood of all time.They have 750,000 sandbags and will start filling 325,000 more next Monday.

The SE part of ND has up to 10 inches of water in the snow.It will get a lot worse if there is a fast warm-up or if a thunder storm comes through with heavy rain to make all that snow go in a hurry.


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## dakotashooter2 (Oct 31, 2003)

Yup ... We are gearing up for a flood fight and we are just on a tributary of the Red.................... They tried to get a bypass here way back in the early 80s and the citizens kept voting it down. it was probably about an 8 million dollar project at the time and would be long paid for.... Now it's over 40 million and probably still 10 years away.........


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## People (Jan 17, 2005)

Did Bismarck Mandan ever give Fargo the ones they took?

Chuck Norris can watch an episode of 60 minutes in 22 seconds.


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## fieldgeneral (Feb 12, 2013)

Looks like the temps will warm up slow enough where i would think things will be ok. Dakotas, water, equals, filling the potholes so that ain't all that bad either from a wildlife perspective.


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## Plainsman (Jul 30, 2003)

fieldgeneral said:


> Looks like the temps will warm up slow enough where i would think things will be ok. Dakotas, water, equals, filling the potholes so that ain't all that bad either from a wildlife perspective.


The problem is so many of the potholes have drains in them. That's why we flood more often these days.


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## mulefarm (Dec 7, 2009)

I guess this will be one of those 100 year floods that seem to occur every couple of years now? I'm sure tiling doesn't have anything to do with it?


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## 1lessdog (Feb 4, 2004)

I live in the area that will be flooded. Im SE of Moorhead 3 miles. And the over land flooding gets out of hand. The problem is every farmer in the area drains the fields now so they can get in them 10 days after the flood. If you bring it up at meeting you get shot down because no one wants to believe its the farmers fault. If you looked at a over head view of the flood in 1997 and then in 2009. You would see all the water in the fields after the river went down. Then look at the same fields in 2009 and there were all dry. When it was a natural flow mother nature controlled the run off. Now its controlled by the farmers and everything is screwed up.

All the drainage ditchs should be capped to allow for a natural flow. Then we would nt have a flood.


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## tilley (Jul 28, 2011)

Let's see..drain all the potholes,tile the fields and low spots and then look for the taxpayer for help every year when it floods. Spend millions to try to fix what had already had in place if we were just not so greedy. Speaking of that,let's get that CRP under the plow and get some corn in to make ethonal.


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## blhunter3 (May 5, 2007)

Tiling has been proven time and time again to DECREASE flooding. Pull your heads out of your ***** guys come on.


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## blhunter3 (May 5, 2007)

I'm sure that buidling paved roads, building buildings all over, lawns that are so compacted they don't soak up water contribute nothing to the flood either, its all the farmers fault. Why does everyone blame the farmers and not take a look at other area's that contribute to floods. Floods happen when you build by a river. Get use to it. Don't like it, move away from it. WOW that was a simple idea.


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## 1lessdog (Feb 4, 2004)

Flooding comes from the run off. Not from someone lawn or parking lot. It come from miles of drained fields. blhunter3 you know better then that. to think flooding comes from lawn and parking lots. GIVE ME A BREAK


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## blhunter3 (May 5, 2007)

Lawns, roads, and houses ALL cause run off. Think about it, if it wasn't there is would be soaked up. Do a soil compaction test on your lawn and let me know what you get. Think about all of the lawns and parking lots where NO water is soaked. I'm not saying that its a leading cause of flooding but it has to contribute to some degree.

Flooding isn't man made it has been happening since the dawn of time.

The only time tiling causes run off is when the field is as water holding capacity and then it would flood anyways.

Draining, yes that can contribute to flooding.


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## fieldgeneral (Feb 12, 2013)

Tiling fields and redirecting water into our tributaries that are made to handle certain amounts of water are a very large contributer to flooding, you can"t deny that. Those waterways are not made to take that kind of water that fast. Farmers want as much of their land to farm as possible, you can't blame them. Plain and simple: tiling sucks, just let it be and let mother nature take care of the water itself. Let's face it, us humans are greedy. It's all about the almighty dollar in the end and that's just too damn bad because you and I know how much money the average farmer has made the past few years. Anyway back to flooding, were bound to see some of it this spring.


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## blhunter3 (May 5, 2007)

Tiling helps reduce flooding. It controls the water levels in the fields. You can lower the water table in the fall so you have about three feet of dry soil that water can soak into. Versus without tiling, the field is already and water holding capacity and then when the snow melts it has no where to soak into. There is a reason there are caps on the tiles going into the drain into the ditch or drainage way.

Acutally fieldgeneral farmers is alot of the area's have been hit hard the plast two years. From having their whole farm put into PP to a drought that wiped out their crops, yeah they have been making alot of money.....

Seriously people, do some research on tile draining you will see how it helps with flooding.


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## Savage260 (Oct 21, 2007)

> yeah they have been making alot of money.....


WOW Is it getting deep in here!!! :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin: :rollin:


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## mulefarm (Dec 7, 2009)

blhunter3 said:


> Tiling helps reduce flooding. It controls the water levels in the fields. You can lower the water table in the fall so you have about three feet of dry soil that water can soak into. Versus without tiling, the field is already and water holding capacity and then when the snow melts it has no where to soak into. There is a reason there are caps on the tiles going into the drain into the ditch or drainage way.
> 
> Acutally fieldgeneral farmers is alot of the area's have been hit hard the plast two years. From having their whole farm put into PP to a drought that wiped out their crops, yeah they have been making alot of money.....
> 
> Seriously people, do some research on tile draining you will see how it helps with flooding.


If tiling helps reduce flooding, why don't we do more tiling so we don't have to experience these 100 year floods every couple of years? If a farmer wants to tile his property, why isn't he responsible for the water when it leaves his property?


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## blhunter3 (May 5, 2007)

How come no one can comprehend that when you has dry soil in the far there is more room for water in the spring?

I'm not going to sit here and explain tiling to everyone. There is enough research for everyone to look up on their soil.


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## dakotashooter2 (Oct 31, 2003)

I have not seen any farmers in my area drawing down their moisture in the fall. Especially the last couple of years when our summers have been dry. In fact it sounds a bit foolish/reckless to do so as there is no way to know for sure how much snow there will be or if there will be enough snowmelt/moisture for crops to get a good start in the spring.

I won't say tiling is causing more flooding but it is reasonable to believe it may be extending it in many situations. Often farmers start pumping off that water as soon as the surface water has disappeared which still can be the tail end of a flooding event. In essence they are adding more water before the flood has subsided downstream.

I think the reason for the need for tiling goes back to the size of farms and diversity of crops any single farm is now growing. When I was growing up it was rare to see farmers that grew more than a couple different crops. As such their harvest season wasn't as spread out and didn't overlap as much as it does today so the urgency to get into the field wasn't as great. I remember when grain harvest generally started mid august at the earliest. Now it can be a month earier and is desirable to be that early so it doesn't overlap with other crops. Due to farm size, even with the larger equipment, most farmers get pretty pressed for time if planting gets set back even a week due to excessive moisture.

I'm waiting to see how much land gets tiled then has to put in an irrigation system at some point.

FYI a very large percentage of flooding in ND is NOT caused by rivers. The floodplain in my community is based on a worst case scenario of river AND overland flooding. The two biggest floods on record here had both at the same time.


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## slough (Oct 12, 2003)

I'm no hydrologist, but it would seem to me that if tiling would lead to drier soil in the spring, that probably wouldn't help the flooding risk all that much since by and large the ground is still frozen when the majority of the melting occurs. The accompanied ditching and wetland drainage would have a much greater impact. Why do we have 100 year floods every other year lately? The valley hasn't been that wet lately - not even close to 1997 for example. There is a decent amount of snow this year (barely above average in Fargo) but not close to historic amounts. Sure the river has always flooded, but not to this extent nor this frequently. Has the river itself changed? Not really. Well, what has changed? More urban development doesn't help of course since that is more impermeable ground leading to more runoff, but it certainly has to do in large part to land use and ditching of water straight into the river since there are so few wetlands left in the valley.


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## 6162rk (Dec 5, 2004)

bl hunter

I think you've been listening to the hefty brothers to much. if the only way for the water was to soak into the ground and aquifer or evaporate but now you pull a ditch/tile right through the hill. re-school all of us on how this does not affect flooding. like I have stated before come into my area and you will see what tiling has done. I just can't explain that water doesn't run up hill. I can tell you that the tile companies have suckered the land owners into their game.

by the way when it gets to dry would you like to send me some money to make it rain? either a dance or some cloud seeding!


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## blhunter3 (May 5, 2007)

Lets see when you lower the water table you have more of a water carrying capacity. Guess what thats means? More ability to hold water. Wow thats so amazing. Alot of tile does have caps on it too so it doesn't always filter out.

Quite intersting that you can reverse irrigate my capping your tile and raise the water table.


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## Plainsman (Jul 30, 2003)

I think the first aerial photos were in 1957. You can look at them at a local ag office. If you look North of Devils Lake in the 1950's then again today you will see more than 90% of the wetlands have been drained. This more than doubles the land mass that contributes to Devils Lake. It's like having a 1000 sq ft house with a 55 gallon water barrel then increasing the house size to 2000 sq ft and thinking the same water barrel will hold the same 1/4 inch rain. 
I once said that channel A carried as much water as the Sheyenne River in June. I was called on that then I think it was Dick Monson that found a reference for it. Channel A is all drain water, and it runs into a lake with no current outlet. I often fish Channel A and where it comes under highway 2 the water is running 14 feet deep with a good current. This river never existed before draining. 
The Corpse of Engineers classifies floods as 10 year floods, 100 year floods, 500 year floods etc. Look back at the 1970's and you will find Grand Forks had seven or eight 100 year floods in a ten year period. Then compare it to the precipitation records. Then ask yourself why so much flooding when many years the precipitation average or under average. Yes, it floods with high snow years, but it also floods with average and less than average. 
That's part of the problem, but the other problem is depleted ground water. Wetlands have three function types. A wetland at higher elevation is more often a hydrological recharge wetland while mid elevation wetlands are flow through, and low elevation wetlands are hydrological discharge. Upper elevation wetlands contribute more water to the aquifer than the atmosphere hence their low electrical conductivity which correlates to water hardness.


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## People (Jan 17, 2005)

Dry soil is one thing but what about last year the news guy is saying rains right before freeze up are going to prevent a lot of water from soaking in.

That is neither here or there. The more water you have flowing the easier flooding will be.

I do like the compacted yard. Yes they are all compacted but it is not fair to use that. I guess if we all used some machinery to turn the soil every year it would be a different story. I do have a story about tilled ground and water absorption. My brother has two garden patches. Both were put in at the same time and filled with dirt from the same spot. Both spots get almost the same amount of light. He had both plots tilled by someone who had a bigger tractor with a tiller. Both plots seemed tilled the same. I have a water issue. I love spraying water with the hose. I should have been a firefighter. I watered just one plot. Just to make the ground wet. The other was effectively dry. He got rain shortly after I was done wetting down the first patch. The wet patch took in far more water than the dry patch. We also lost a lot of dirt from the dry patch.

So why would they dry their fields when moist soil takes in more than dry?

As to why they blame the farmers. It is easy. They are doing something new and it is flooding. Trying to prove the gov or some big business is lying to us or doing something to affect the weather.

Chuck Norris make onions CRY!!!


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## north1 (Nov 9, 2010)

Man, it is remarkable how people can chase their tails on this subject. It is just my $.02 but I feel there are at the very least four contributors to the flooding problems.

1. Farmland drainage. Yes, it is a contributor to flooding. It is common sense that drain tile is less a culprit than drainage ditches. Drain tile only works when the water holding capacity of the soil above it is saturated. It will not operate when the ground is frozen. Ditches deliver water as soon as the snow melt occurs and operate whether the ground is frozen or not.

2. Urban drainage. Although many overlook and/or downplay its contribution it is a major factor. Building communties alter natural drainage patterns, storm sewers deliver water directily to streams and rivers and concrete and asphalt allow for zero water infiltration. Want an example. My sister moved to a new subdivision in SW Minot 10 years ago. All the area west of her home was hayland with a creek running through it. Two years ago the city planners, in their infinite wisdom allowed developement in this area. They dozed the hayland, covered up the creek and put in a massive storm sewer system. Now her basement has flooded twice and the storm drain delivers all this water from the yards and streets directly to the souris river.

3. Climate. We are in a wet cycle. Just as you can have two 100 year floods in consectutive years you can be in a wet cycle and have dry years. I record rain and snowfall data for the North Dakota Atmosperic Resource Board and this wet cycle began in 1993. Is this climate change due to human influences I cannot say but I am confident the actions taken by our government and state agencies(i.e. EPA) will not ameliorate it. So we are going to have to deal with these extremes.

How long has Fargo been considering a flood control project? I ask because I truely don't know. I lived in Grand Forks in 1997 so I know it has been at least 15 years. Grand Forks has addressed it to some degree, so why hasn't Fargo?

Farmland drainage is controlled by state and federal agencies. You cannot simply decide to dig a drain or lay drain tile or you will be in big trouble. The farm service agency, US soil conservation office, US fish and wildlife sevice and state government would come down on you like a ton of bricks. So do people really think they can reverse 50+ years of drainage sanctioned by these agencies?

4. Federal and State Governments. In fact the 4th contributer to flooding is these very agencies. The 2011 floods in Minot and Bismarck were primarily the result of mismanagement of water delivered by the Missouri and Souris(Mouse) rivers. The control of water by the Raffery+Alemida dams in Canada and the Lake Darling dam in North Dakota lead to the flooding along the Souris River(Mouse) not farmland drainage. Why, because farmland drainage is not sanctioned in the prairie pothole region in this watershed.

Bismarck and areas south along the Missouri have the Fort Peck and Garrison dam mismanagement to thank for part of their flooding problems. Well, I guess mother nature had her hand in it but try blaming her and see how quick our problems get solved.

So, we can continue to chase our tails; blaming everyone around us but ourselves. We allow developement in floodprone areas and elect officials who fail to plan for proper water management. Then allow people to take flood insurance and we all pay. Sanction farmland drainage without proper study of the ramifications to downsteam interests. Mismanage watershed and contol of dams which directly lead to damage. My $.02 is to look in the mirror not those around you, we are all at fault!


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## slough (Oct 12, 2003)

north1 said:


> Grand Forks has addressed it to some degree, so why hasn't Fargo?


I think the easy answer to that would be that GF got the funding to do so after their disaster in 1997. The national economy was better then too. Fargo hasn't had the big disaster yet.


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## Duckslayer100 (Apr 7, 2004)

slough said:


> north1 said:
> 
> 
> > Grand Forks has addressed it to some degree, so why hasn't Fargo?
> ...


Federal funding or not, for all the millions of dollars Fargo has sunk into flood fights since 1997, they could have paid for a diversion and then some by now...


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## Decoyer (Mar 2, 2002)

I'd encourage you guys to take a look at the link below. As far as I know, its the only analysis that's ever been completed to actually draw conclusions on how tile drainage affects flooding in the Red River Basin.

http://www.rrbdin.org/archives/649


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## specialpatrolgroup (Jan 16, 2009)

Maybe I am wrong, but I do not think frozen ground soaks up water, even if there was 3 feet of dry soil, when flood time roles around only about the top 10 inches are thawed, if even that much.


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## blhunter3 (May 5, 2007)

By that statement tiling has no effect on the flooding then.


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## Decoyer (Mar 2, 2002)

Anything in the name of ag. Kiss Type 1 and 3 wetlands goodbye in SE ND... Did anyone actually look at the link provided above? It doesn't agree with either point of view. Really depends on where you are in the watershed in terms of timing with the peak on the tributary and Red. There isn't all kinds of studies on tile drainage out there, in fact its one of the areas that hasn't had extensive study. One thing tile does lead to is increased base flows for longer duration, ultimately increased in channel erosion. I wonder who gets to foot the bill for increased frequency county ditch clean outs and repairs?

People forget that on average, ND is generally lacking, or at least on the fringe of sufficient moisture for corn production. Someday we'll have a real cooker of a summer (like last year without the residual moisture from the year before) and everyone can just watch their moisture content drain out the end of the pipe.


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## blhunter3 (May 5, 2007)

Decoyer said:


> I wonder who gets to foot the bill for increased frequency county ditch clean outs and repairs?
> 
> People forget that on average, ND is generally lacking, or at least on the fringe of sufficient moisture for corn production. Someday we'll have a real cooker of a summer (like last year without the residual moisture from the year before) and everyone can just watch their moisture content drain out the end of the pipe.


The landowner foots the bills for cleaning out ditches.

There is a reason you can cap your tile. You can actaully with capping it have reverse irragation.


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## 6162rk (Dec 5, 2004)

the land owner does not pay the full bill. I have yet to see a tile with a cap on it. been looking for over 50 years


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## fieldgeneral (Feb 12, 2013)

Keep on looking, you will NEVER see that.


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## blhunter3 (May 5, 2007)

There are alot of tile with caps on. I have seen them alot of them quite actually. Just because you don't see them sometimes doesn't mean that they are ever on.


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## blhunter3 (May 5, 2007)

6162rk said:


> the land owner does not pay the full bill. I have yet to see a tile with a cap on it. been looking for over 50 years


I have yet to ever be paid for cleaning out our drainage ditches, as well as the drainage ditches that we farm, other then the time by the township and that was an emergency ditch to keep two roads open, and even them it covered the cost of the operation, not my time.


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## the professor (Oct 13, 2006)

Spring snowmelt runoff flooding of the red river basin and summer rain event flooding of the red are two different animals. in the spring you have frozen ground, mostly frozen water ways, sloughs, lakes, etc. then a rapid warm up in the lower reaches and all that water is trying to flow north against the freeze/snow line. Hard to argue that sloughs/tile help or hurt spring flooding when everything is drifted in or frozen and just starting to thaw. Now, summer rain events are a different story. rain water reaches the main tributaries much faster than it used to, blame it on tile, not sure on that, but the loss of wetlands and the surface drainage is more of a culprit. Where it used to take a day to see a rise in a river from an inch of rain, now it takes only hours.


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## 6162rk (Dec 5, 2004)

it used to take a day and now it takes a few hours. wonder where that water is coming from?


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