# Favre and Interceptions



## taddy1340 (Dec 10, 2004)

Good article that put Favre's numbers in context...sure he throws a lot of picks but looking at his numbers compared to the all-time greats, I'll take him. Montana and Young were in a class of their own in protecting the ball...one that Brady may join.

I guess there must be some format issues with parentheses and commas...that's why those smilies pop up..

http://www.packersnews.com/apps/pbcs.dl ... 22081/1989

Pete Dougherty column: With Favre, rewards outweigh risks

By Pete Dougherty

Early in the 1993 season, Steve Mariucci taped a picture of a dead horse on his office wall.

Mariucci was the Green Bay Packers' quarterbacks coach, and for more than a year, he'd admonished quarterback Brett Favre countless times in practice and meetings about not throwing interceptions, about taking a checkdown rather than a high-risk pass.

Eventually, backup quarterback Ty Detmer started harping at Mariucci, "You're beating a dead horse, you're beating a dead horse."

Up went the picture, and when watching film, if Favre threw a bad interception, Mariucci would point to it rather than say anything. That lasted through the 1995 season, when Mariucci left to become head coach at the University of California.

"Ty would laugh, and (Mark) Brunell, 'Nice throw, Brett, way to go dead horse,'" Mariucci said this week. "Beating a dead horse. He's a dandy."

Mariucci probably felt more of former coach Mike Holmgren's wrath for Favre's interceptions than Favre. Mariucci did most of the hands-on coaching with Favre, and during games, his headset was hooked to Holmgren's. Holmgren held Mariucci responsible when the young gunslinger went too far.

"I can't tell you how many times Mike Holmgren, when I'm up in the box because I'm on the phones with Mike, was like, 'What is he doing?' " Mariucci said. "And it would be quiet, because I didn't know what to tell him. It was hard to explain what he was doing sometimes. But when you looked up, he was usually winning the game for you. Even in his young years, he made the Pro Bowl, and even in his young years, he never had a losing season. So what he was doing was playing quarterback to help us win."

There's no question Favre deserves his reputation as a gunslinger. He's been a high risk-reward player all of his career, and as his 149-90 record suggests, the rewards have been much greater than the risks.

However, as Favre closes in on the NFL records for touchdown passes (he's four away from breaking Dan Marino's record of 420) and interceptions (three shy of topping George Blanda's 277), this is a good time to investigate just how costly Favre's risk-taking has been, at least based on the ample numerical evidence.

Perhaps surprisingly, he comes out OK when judged by interception percentage, which is the number of interceptions a quarterback throws per 100 passes. The numbers say he's a significantly bigger risk-taker than two all-time great quarterbacks of his era, Joe Montana and Steve Young, but he's not much worse than top contemporaries John Elway, Dan Marino and Troy Aikman.

First, remember that Favre ranks a close second to Marino for the most pass attempts in NFL history - his 8,303 to Marino's 8,358. So, even though Favre has thrown 275 interceptions, his interception percentage of 3.31 per 100 passes is half that of Blanda's (6.91), and significantly lower than the No. 3 man on the interception list, John Hadl (5.72).

Comparing Favre to quarterbacks from 30 years ago or more has limited value, for two reasons. Most importantly, the rules changes restricting contact with receivers and liberalizing the use of hands in pass blocking undoubtedly has reduced interceptions in the last 30 years. There's no knowing how many interceptions were caused by defensive backs knocking receivers off their routes downfield.

Also, in recent years, teams have placed an even greater premium on avoiding turnovers, which probably helps account for the league-wide average of interception percentage to drop from 3.90 in 1989 to 3.17 last year.

A look at several all-time great quarterbacks bears that out. For instance, Bart Starr, who's considered one of the smartest quarterbacks in league history, had an interception percentage of 4.38, a full percentage point worse than Favre's 3.31. The all-time greats from those earlier eras also were worse, including: Otto Graham (6.00), Johnny Unitas (4.88), Fran Tarkenton (4.11), Joe Namath (5.85), Terry Bradshaw (5.38), Len Dawson (4.89), Bob Griese (5.02), Norm Van Brocklin (6.12), Sammy Baugh (6.78), Bobby Layne (6.58) and Sonny Jurgensen (4.43).

Compared to top contemporaries, on the other hand, Favre's numbers say he's more interception-prone than many, but not by much when compared to most.

To give a general idea, last season, NFL quarterbacks on average threw 3.17 interceptions per 100 passes. That's barely better than Favre's career mark of 3.31. To put it another way, Favre in his career has thrown one more interception per 700 passes than all quarterbacks threw last year.

Of Hall of Fame contemporaries, Joe Montana and Steve Young were by far the most efficient. Both have an interception percentage of 2.58, which is notably better than Favre's 3.31. But when compared to Marino (3.02), Elway (3.12) and even the precision-oriented Troy Aikman (2.99), Favre is worse, but not by much.

*Essentially, for every 300 passes in their careers, Favre threw one more interception than Aikman, Marino and Elway. *Even Phil Simms, who wasn't a Hall of Famer but was an excellent game manager and Super Bowl winner, essentially had the same interception percentage (3.40) as Favre.

Among other Hall of Fame contemporaries, Favre rates similarly or marginally better: Warren Moon (3.41 percent), Dan Fouts (3.38) and Jim Kelly (3.66).

Among the younger generation of top quarterbacks, Favre rates significantly worse than New England's Tom Brady (2.53 percent) and, to a lesser extent, Indianapolis' Peyton Manning (2.84 percent). Brady's done it without anything like Manning's offensive weapons.

Several other good current quarterbacks rate much better than Favre: Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb, who's nearly a full percentage point better (2.19 percent); Tampa Bay's Jeff Garcia (2.42 percent), Baltimore's Steve McNair (2.63 percent), Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck (2.73 percent), and New Orleans' Drew Brees (2.74 percent). But how many of those players are headed to the Hall of Fame? None. How many of them have had a career anything close to Favre's? Again, none.

This isn't to argue that Favre's style of play doesn't have a big downside. Anyone who's watched the Packers the last 16 years knows he's a bigger gambler than most. But for all the crazy plays, he's really no more interception-prone than the average NFL quarterback. As his record bears out, the risks have come with a high reward. Favre last week topped Elway for the NFL's record for career wins (149), and since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, he has the eighth-highest winning percentage (.621) among quarterbacks with 100 starts. Ahead of him are Montana (.713), Bradshaw (.677), Ken Stabler (.661), Young (.657), Manning (.644), Elway (.643) and Kelly (.631). Brady, who is 72-24, will be atop that list after his 100th game.

That, more than anything, will be Favre's legacy. He won with fewer weapons, arguably, than all those ahead of him on that post-merger winning percentage list except for Brady. He lost sometimes because of that style - the interception he threw in overtime in the playoff loss at Philadelphia in the 2003 season is Exhibit No. 1. But perhaps the play that epitomizes his career wasn't even a pass, but the 9-yard touchdown run against Atlanta in 1993 that beat the Falcons 21-17 and clinched the Packers' first playoff berth of the Favre era. It came on a third down, with the Packers down by three, after Holmgren told Favre he couldn't run or get sacked, because with no timeouts the Packers wouldn't have had time to kick the game-tying field goal.

One Packers scout remembers former kicker Chris Jacke summing up that play: "It was sheer stupidity and sheer brilliance, all in the same play."

"It was a lot like the decisions he made in the passing game," Mariucci said. "'It's gonna be close. I'm gonna pull the trigger but it's gonna be close. I'll probably get it but there is a chance I won't.' The last thing Mike wanted to see was him running the ball. He wanted another down. But there he goes. He made it."

Pete Dougherty covers the Packers for the Press-Gazette. E-mail him at [email protected]


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## Springer (Dec 21, 2004)

Sorry Mike I couldn't make it through that whole article, just too long and too green. :lol:


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