# I'm looking for some suggestions here.



## gandergrinder (Mar 10, 2002)

I'm working on my masters and my thesis is on land values in North Dakota. I'm comparing a number of different land valuation methods trying to find how they compare, why they are different etc etc. Trying to improve them.

Land values in some areas are being driven almost exclusively by the recreational value of hunting. Most of my models include agricultural factors, however I would like to try to incorporate a factor that has to do with hunting activity within a county or something like that. However the data has to be from an accurate source and be quantifiable.

I know that land values in the Southwest are being driven by the value of pheasants but I need a way to show this statistically. Other areas are probably driven by waterfowl hunting. If anyone has any ideas please post up. Does the game and fish have any data that may work for this? I'm really at a loss here on what to use. If I can't find anything I will just have to go with what I have but I am really curious about the effect of hunting.


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## buckseye (Dec 8, 2003)

Sounds fun... :lol:

Land has collateral value, what it has in loan value
Land has real value, what you can sell it for
Land has assigned value, the number used for taxes.

I think you are on the way or this is already part of your plan, for recreational value info I think you would contact local County Auditors and ask if or how much land is labled recreational. Then follow along with when they were classified as rec. and how much the tax base and income production from the land has changed. This is probaly more confusing than anything, sorry.


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## Bob Kellam (Apr 8, 2004)

GG seem like the realtors selling the land would have a decent handle on the price for specific land uses. Maybe some of the small town banks would give out some information on loan values of land with habitat vs. land without?

Good luck stat's class always drove me nuts! 

Have a good one!


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## tsodak (Sep 7, 2002)

Of course you understand that the quantifiable part is difficult, but it is doubly so because none of this exists in a vacume. What Buckseye said makes sense, except that ag land still has a recreational value. And recreational land also has an ag value. Worse yet, in a land auction, all three values can actively work against each other, or work together to drive up the price. What you are really looking for is the difference in valuation that can be attributed to recreational value, rather than difference in local sales prices. That is going to be tough to pull out, because it will vary from parcel to parcel. Rather than realtors, I am wondering if certified land appraisers would have some insight on this. But it is going to be a supposition, rather than something that can be measured. 
BTW, have you thought at all about factoring the relative cheapness of credit and low return from other investments into the equation?? Also 1031 land exchanges are driving a huge influx of NR buying pressure into ND right now, and that could change with administrations or the whim of Congress.

I will do some thinking about this and get back at you. Would love to sit down with you for a cup of coffee or maybe over the lip of our blinds and visit about this.

Later, Tom


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## PSDC (Jul 17, 2003)

You can call the County Assessor's Office and ask for such
information. Some counties even have a website that the
information can be obtained.

They can tell you what the purchase price was for a piece
of land. Also, ask for the "Notice of Valuation and Classification".
There it will tell you the estimated market value vs. taxable
market value. What the piece last sold for, should be similar
to the estimated market value. All this information is open
to the public. The bank(s) will probably not give you
any information due to the privacy laws.

Good luck on thesis!


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## gandergrinder (Mar 10, 2002)

I have most of the variables in my regression models already worked out for the ag value part of the equation and using regression models I should be able to quantify the recreational value of land. I'm not sure if you guys are familiar with Hedonic Valuation Models, but that is how it is done. I can quantify the factors giving agricultural land its value fairly easily. Fairly being a relative term, but good data is available. We are talking economics here so I obviously can't model every factor.

I can get all the land sales from the tax directors and whatever information is public and have already done most of that stuff already. Verifying the information with the grantor and grantee is the problem. I also have to remove sales that were not arms length. I don't want land with improvements such as buildings etc etc.

In order to make my models statistically significant I need to collect alot of sales (hundreds). Obviously the larger the sample size the more likely I am to get an accurate assessment of the whole population. Up to a point of course.

I have spent more hours than I care to admit pouring over economics journals and reading past land value studies (literally hundreds of hours) uke: . I'm pretty well versed on everything associated with ag values in North Dakota. I have 35 pages written on my thesis and thats just chapters 1 and 2 out of 5 so to try and explain what I am doing in a few short posts really doesn't give justice to what I am trying to do.

I would really like to model the effects that recreational hunting is having on land values. All of the research done at the university, at least at NDSU, only takes into account agricultural factors. It would be pretty groundbreaking stuff and very valuable information.

What a huge headache a masters is. Sometimes I question what I am doing still going to school but I figured that if I want to stay in ND and make a good living I am going to have to set myself apart somehow. Hopefully I can start my own business in a few years.


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## MRN (Apr 1, 2002)

GG,
Novel thinking is what drives science, but its never easy doing the new stuff (plus be ready to be blasted for everything - stick to your guns). I'd start by rephrasing your question: you don't know if land prices are being driven by pheasants - perhaps not at all. You wish to determine if this is true or not.

The USGS folks might be worth talking to - they care about animals, and they care about land, and they know many of the tools.

Can you assume recrational use and tilled ag acres are mutually exclusive? That allows you some way to separate ag use/ag value from rec use/rec value both in the assessment of your parcels and in your equation (ignoring interactions). Some fundamental assumption like this might help.

Historical recreational land use will be a tough one. To be honest, I think you might have to make assumptions based on information you can get from various sources (e.g. G&F) regarding recreational uses by county. You might have to code recreational use with some discrete variable (low, med, high) based on the information you get for the time period for which you have purchase information.

For recent parcels you might estimate the recreation use acres and ag use acres by looking at the parcel. For historical data you might use something like terra server - some photos there are from the 70's, 80's and '90 - but that's a long shot.

Good luck.
M.


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## DeltaBoy (Mar 4, 2004)

Gander,

Contact the following:

John Devney - Vice President Marketing and Communications

Bryce - Biologist

Please note, they might be able to point you in the right direction or find someone who can. Good Luck!

These guys can be reached at Delta Waterfowl, Bismarck, ND.

Phone: 1-888-987-3695

P.S. I know what your going through... getting your Master's will bring many, many positive outcomes in the near future. Oh yea, this might be a good way for Delta to get to know you. You never know what could happen from your conversations. This is how much of my career has been shaped, simple conversation.


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## bioman (Mar 1, 2002)

Jed:

A couple of thoughts...

Find out if sold parcels were entered into either a grassland easement or wetland reserve program. If the sold parcel had either, then you could make an assumption that the property was going to be used for recreational uses versus agricultural production.

Also, you should be readily able to track the purchases of lands with CRP easements. A questionaire would allow you to ask what type of use best decribes the transaction/purchase (e.g., investment, recreational, agricultural, etc.).


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