# Stock Market ?????



## hammer007911 (Feb 4, 2009)

What do yo think the market will bottom out at?

4750 is my guess.

Hammer


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## Bowstring (Nov 27, 2006)

"0" socialists don't have stock markets. The banks will be Nationalized by then too. Then government owns the business, they can nationalize them too in the name of saving jobs.


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## northdakotakid (May 12, 2004)

I am less worried about the exact bottom and more worried about the growth rate of the economy moving forward...

*The only thing that will stop the governments manipulation of the economy & the law is the People... we have 2-4 years for us to vote out Senators, Presidents, Governors, City Council Man/Woman, judges, Representatives, Mayors... all the people that either never knew or forgot why they were elected. *

*A quiet revolution is stirring in the hearts of Americans as they see thier homes, their jobs and the food from their tables disappear. The only question is will this bring us together as a people again or drive us further apart... the people are not without blame for the state of our great Nation.

We have all made decisions along the way... starting with who we voted for, signing our name to a house we could not afford... or not teaching our children the way we were taught.

The values of a democracy(people) are reflective of the people they choose as representatives(granting authority) and more importantly the people they re-elect into public office. Term limits should have little impact on public offices... atleast if you look at the original intent of the Founding Fathers.

Self reliance is a virtue long forgotten in the society that we have today... but soon, the cost of helping another will be more than most will be willing to spend. We will be reminded of what the meaning of Friend and Family is... and what the cost is to be one. *


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## drjongy (Oct 13, 2003)

A lot of people are saying somewhere around 5000. I try not to time the market, however, I just stick a set amount in at regular intervals. "Dollar cost averaging" I think it's called.


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## TANATA (Oct 31, 2003)

I don't think it will get near 4750 at all. Housing market is supposed to flatten out by end of 2009 as unemployment continues to steadily rise, but I don't see anything below 5000 happening, remember the last time we hit below 7000 was a huge deal in 97.

I'm more worried about long term then short term, we have been doing a lot of the same thing Japan did. Well look at their decade long recession.....


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## northdakotakid (May 12, 2004)

I think that growth projections do not take into the increase in savings rate...



> Personal savings rose $128.7 billion in January to $545.5 billion. The personal savings rate, expressed as a percentage of disposable personal income, jumped to 5% from 3.9% in December. At 5%, the savings rate is at a 14-year high.
> 
> "The savings rate is a better reflection of the caution that consumers are showing than the spending number," York said.
> 
> A big decline in consumer spending helped drive the nation's gross domestic product, the broadest gauge of economic activity, sharply lower during the last three months of 2008.


Americans are in the largest deleveraging period that we have ever seen... more so than the depression. It will take years to repair the economy and longer to prosper. The class warfare in America will ebcome even more entrenched... history forgotten is history destine to repeat itself.

S&P 575 DOW 5200 ... reaching that point after Q2 numbers are released in July.


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## Bowstring (Nov 27, 2006)

Seriously, I agree with NDkid.

S&P 575 DOW 5200 ... reaching that point after Q2 numbers are released in July. or a little lower.

The talk on the street is 20% lower when the s&p was around 700. I also believe unemployment will likely hit 10% or more around the same time. When unemployment levels off i think a flat market will continue until consumers start spending. I left the stock market in august 2007 when trading was 24 times earnings. I could see the $hit hit'n the fan at that time.


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## Plainsman (Jul 30, 2003)

Bowstring, I should have done what you did. I thought about our military laying their lives on the line, and thought I should leave my money in. It was the least I could do to try help the economy. Now I have seen dreams go down the drain since November. I had to take it out because the necessities of life were about to go down the drain.

I think the market will go below 4000, and that may be optimistic. If we go to far socialist I think it will tank to zero. I'm not convinced that it is by accident we are headed that way.

NDkid your post about why we are where we are was very good. We need to dump a lot of people who look at their office as a career and power is their most important goal.


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## NDTerminator (Aug 20, 2003)

I lost 25% of my investments since Oct and decided enough is enough. Last week I pulled everything out into a "safe" fund. Only drawing 3% interest, but it sure beats losing it all...

More & more it's obvious the Dear Leader is in way over his head and only interested in pushing through a far left agenda, business and investors be damned...


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## Bowstring (Nov 27, 2006)

Who would have thought that a"Community Organizer" only knows how to receive funds from tax payers and no clue on how to create the opportunity to make a profit or income? Hmmmm and who would have thought that promoting the entry level manager to CEO of GE for example, wouldn't bankrupt a company? Maybe we should be more concerned with voter ignorance than voter fraud. 
_________________________________

The American people will never knowingly adopt socialism. But, under the name of 'liberalism,' they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program, until one day America will be a socialist nation, without knowing how it happened.
- Norman Thomas, U.S. Socialist Party presidential candidate 1940, 1944 and 1948


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## northdakotakid (May 12, 2004)

Check out I bonds... inflation hedged and any investment professional who is honest will tell you that they are hard to compete with...

I do not know everything nor claim to do so... but I am tired of people being misled by false hope... I am not saying the economy will not come back but we need to shed our 1-3 yr line of sight and look at the rate of growth that this country has sustained for the last 20 years(with a few mild corrections(recessions)). The trajectory was unsustainable ... it is again time for the deleveraging of the economy to "price-in" systemic risk and reprice assets.

A global comparison would be to look at China... China has seen less overall reduction in its overall economic growth(GDP) because it's current position is similar to the US in the 40's where people were leaving the countryside to take factory jobs(Industrial Revolution?). Hopefully, China's continued, though slowed, growth and demand for natural resources will help support the economic fallout currently happening in Developed Countries(Russia, US, Germany).

All in all, the hyper-inflation that will occur at the end of 2009 into 2010 could support a big inflow of foreign investment because of a weakening dollar(dillution). I hate the idea of foreign coutrnies owning more US Assets and companies but it may be what is required because of the fiscal and monetary policies of the current adminstration.

So maybe we will see $5,000 lab puppies next year... =-)


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## TANATA (Oct 31, 2003)

I guarantee we will not see hyper-inflation by the end of the year. We need to see the market level out before we worry about it, and then we will be looking at stagflation due to Obama's economic policy.

Inflation includes two sides: increase in money supply and/or increase in consumer spending and demand. While the country is busy de-leveraging itself, it is not going to be creating a whole lot of demand from the consumer side which will lead to decreased demand throughout the economy on the commercial side. Not only that, but the billions companies are getting to pay off debts, is money going to pay off debts that should have been paid anyways. It's as if there is no new money there for now, inflation will take a while to catch up to what's going on right now.

As the housing system flattens and we figure out financial institutions, things will settle. I hope we don't see the high levels we have seen at 15000 dow again, as its proven over and over again it's too good to be true, whether it's based on a housing bubble or internet bubble or durable goods bubble that lead to the Great Depression. There is no way we will see a 4000 Dow, most companies on the Dow are already nearing rock bottum levels where they will start to rally if they go any lower. Only thing I'm worried about is Obama. Any more poor policy decisions and horrible speeches and we might all be screwed. This party apparently has never taken a history class in sociology, economics, or politics as far as I'm concerned.


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## Bowstring (Nov 27, 2006)

Interesting my wife was looking at t bonds inflation protected.

Are Treasury bonds at a TIPping point?

Recent efforts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks to stimulate world economies have made yields on U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) more attractive, according to John Hollyer, co-manager of Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund. But just how attractive are they?

The answer depends on what you think is going to happen to inflation during the next decade.
The role of TIPS

TIPS are designed to preserve purchasing power in the long run by protecting investors against the risk of inflation. They are bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury that have a fixed rate of return. However, because the principal is adjusted according to changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the dollar amount of the interest payment also goes up and down. When these securities mature, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater.

As Treasury bonds, TIPS present virtually no default risk. And since they are indexed to inflation, there is almost no inflation risk (provided your personal rate of inflation is close to the CPI rate). But they're not risk-free: TIPS market prices move substantially with changes in real interest rates. That means that the share price of a mutual fund investing in TIPS can vary significantly over the short term.

"To evaluate TIPS, you should compare them to conventional Treasury securities using so-called break-even inflation," Mr. Hollyer said. The break-even rate is the figure you get by subtracting the yield to maturity of a TIPS bond from the yield to maturity of a comparable Treasury bond. This approximates the annual inflation rate required for the two securities to have the same total return. If you believe that inflation is likely to be higher than the break-even rate, then yields on TIPS would be considered attractive, Mr. Hollyer said

Expectations for the future

"Recent yields of TIPS reveal very low expectations for inflation, both short- and long-term," Mr. Hollyer said. "Over the next three years TIPS would produce 1% higher yield than conventional Treasuries if we had 1% deflation. You have to go back to the Great Depression to find a level of deflation for such an extended period of time. Over ten years, break-even inflation is just under 0.5% per year. This means TIPS are attractively valued if average annual inflation turns out to be higher than 0.5% over this time horizon."

Mr. Hollyer said that falling energy and commodity prices were the leading short-term deflationary forces. "Longer-term, it's a question of the length and depth of the current economic downturn," he said. "If it is particularly severe and prolonged, it could lead to a protracted period of deflation."

Of course, no one can forecast the long-term outlook for TIPS valuations. But Mr. Hollyer believes that a key may be the monetary and fiscal stimulus being applied by central banks and governments. "There is a decent probability there will be some policy overshoot and the Fed will be dealing with higher-than-expected inflation," he said. "TIPS are more attractive than regular Treasuries right now if this outlook proves accurate."


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## northdakotakid (May 12, 2004)

Seems to fit the bill... Since hyperinflation is visible as a monetary effect, models of hyperinflation center on the demand for money. Economists see both a rapid increase in the money supply and an increase in the velocity of money if the (monetary) inflating is not stopped. Either one, or both of these together are the root causes of inflation and hyperinflation. A dramatic increase in the velocity of money as the cause of hyperinflation is central to the "crisis of confidence" model of hyperinflation, where the risk premium that sellers demand for the paper currency over the nominal value grows rapidly. The second theory is that there is first a radical increase in the amount of circulating medium, which can be called the "monetary model" of hyperinflation. In either model, the second effect then follows from the first - either too little confidence forcing an increase in the money supply, or too much money destroying confidence.

Come on... 


> If you guys are getting hurt by the market, get into gold. Always going up with unstable financials and everything else being hurt. Watched a few companies increase 50 fold in a matter of 2 days. Wouldn't be bad for the check book.


AS of March 26, 2006 the government no longer publishes the M3. M3 includes all of M2 (which includes M1) plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits, balances in institutional money funds, repurchase liabilities issued by depository institutions, and Eurodollars held by U.S. residents at foreign branches of U.S. banks and at all banks in the United Kingdom and Canada."

The most restrictive, M1, only measures the most liquid forms of money; it is limited to currency actually in the hands of the public. This includes travelers checks, demand deposits (checking accounts), and other deposits against which checks can be written.

M2 includes all of M1, plus savings accounts, time deposits of under $100,000, and balances in retail money market mutual funds.

Point being that there is no public record of what the money supply really looks like... scary scary stuff...


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## Eric Hustad (Feb 25, 2002)

Being in the business I can't say a lot but be careful of chasing investments near highs. Remember last summer when oil was supposed to go to 200?? If a person has a long-term time outlook this could very well be the chance of lifetime with the market where it's at. Issues like mark to market are about to be addressed and could very well help banks during this time. Remember by the time people have realized we have hit a bottom they have missed a good portion of the return up. This is a tough time for everyone and I don't blame people for being nervous, but we will get past this.


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## Eric Hustad (Feb 25, 2002)

drjongy, you have got the right idea and I couldn't agree with you more.


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## MDV89 (Sep 8, 2008)

I've head a bit of talk of bottoming @ low 5000's worst case senario (GM bankrupt, more bailouts etc.) but we'll have to wait & see. Glad the economy in Nodak looks quite a bit better overall than the national average - which leads me to another question - even though the economy up here is still fundamentally sound, how does the constant talk of unemployment and resession weight on the minds of those up here? Basically will we follow suit with tougher lending standards and lower consumer demand/spending....


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## TANATA (Oct 31, 2003)

MDV89 said:


> I've head a bit of talk of bottoming @ low 5000's worst case senario (GM bankrupt, more bailouts etc.) but we'll have to wait & see. Glad the economy in Nodak looks quite a bit better overall than the national average - which leads me to another question - even though the economy up here is still fundamentally sound, how does the constant talk of unemployment and resession weight on the minds of those up here? Basically will we follow suit with tougher lending standards and lower consumer demand/spending....


By "tougher" lending standards, you have to look at what they'll judge as decent credit compared to the entire country. With the number of people going bankrupt, losing their house, and not making payments on items, the credit scores of people around the country stuggling a lot more then us will give people around here with a good credit score an ever better score when compared to average.


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## buckseye (Dec 8, 2003)

My big change would be if a person has any credit cards with any company they are not eligible for a loan until their credit card debts are paid up and all personal credit card accounts closed. Then they will be issued a debit card on their own account at the lending institution that holds their mortgage and if they don't have money in their account they don't have money.

This works for me. And a nice big measure of personal accountability!!


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## Bowstring (Nov 27, 2006)

drjongy said:


> A lot of people are saying somewhere around 5000. I try not to time the market, however, I just stick a set amount in at regular intervals. "Dollar cost averaging" I think it's called.


I see that as "dollar* lost *averaging" in a down trending market. Now or when the market levels off and maybe after it increases I will start to invest by "dollar cost averaging". Hold on to the cash instead of losing part of its value.


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## TANATA (Oct 31, 2003)

buckseye said:


> My big change would be if a person has any credit cards with any company they are not eligible for a loan until their credit card debts are paid up and all personal credit card accounts closed. Then they will be issued a debit card on their own account at the lending institution that holds their mortgage and if they don't have money in their account they don't have money.
> 
> This works for me. And a nice big measure of personal accountability!!


Tightening credit like this, if your serious not sure if youre venting or just sayinig, would cripple the economic system worse then anything.


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## TANATA (Oct 31, 2003)

Bowstring said:


> drjongy said:
> 
> 
> > A lot of people are saying somewhere around 5000. I try not to time the market, however, I just stick a set amount in at regular intervals. "Dollar cost averaging" I think it's called.
> ...


How are you going to know when the market levels off? Or when it is increasing? It leveled off and started to increase a couple weeks ago, now it's tanking worse then ever. According to your quote, you would have started to invest when it was climbing above 7500 and looked like we where going to rally, and now you would already be in the hole. Problem with the market right now is nobody knows when it is level or ready to sustain a rally, so dollar-cost averaging is about the only somewhat safe investing you can do.


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## Bowstring (Nov 27, 2006)

I got out of the stock market August 2007, haven't got back in yet. In a volatile market you will have a hard time picking the bottom. With that in mind I'll see the market increase around 5% before I'm gong in, hopefully it will continue then.  I think it will be a up and down market once it gets going,buy on the lows and sell on the highs. Do a little profit taking like the big boys once and awhile hopefully. :beer: no crash and burn for my assets if I can help it.


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## buckseye (Dec 8, 2003)

> Tightening credit like this, if your serious not sure if youre venting or just sayinig, would cripple the economic system worse then anything.


It is what is called a correction. And wouldn't hurt the majority who are responsible for paying for the irresponsible. Yeah I'm serious and I would do that and we would see no difference in the welfare lines. To many folks trying to outwit the government over paying taxes is a huge problem. In business you pay income tax on profit, if you can work the books to show no profit you show a loss. Then you cry for help, I lost money... what a hoax on ourselves!!! uke:


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## TANATA (Oct 31, 2003)

buckseye said:


> > Tightening credit like this, if your serious not sure if youre venting or just sayinig, would cripple the economic system worse then anything.
> 
> 
> It is what is called a correction. And wouldn't hurt the majority who are responsible for paying for the irresponsible. Yeah I'm serious and I would do that and we would see no difference in the welfare lines. To many folks trying to outwit the government over paying taxes is a huge problem. In business you pay income tax on profit, if you can work the books to show no profit you show a loss. Then you cry for help, I lost money... what a hoax on ourselves!!! uke:


Tightening credit is 1 of the major problems we are facing. When banks started to go under and credit freezes, it almost stops our economy as it's based on leverage. Many businesses need to take out small loans and notes payable to pay bills on a month to month basis, and tightening credit makes that a problem which leads to profit problems which leads to unemployment which leads to even more problems for businesses. Tightening credit on things such as sub-prime mortgages isn't a bad idea, but putting a credit freeze on everyone is absolutely ridiculous and would not to anyone's benefit.

I don't think companies not paying the correct amount of income tax has much to do with our problem. Obviously the government has more than enough money to sling around regardless, and most of income tax write-offs are their for a reason. The government wrote the book on taxes, so if a business is re-investing in order for more write-offs, there is nothing wrong with that. The reason companies got bailed out in the financial sector is because of the absolute size and what it would have done to our economic system along with other countries that where heavily tied into us. There is alittle more depth to our problem then you're approaching and throwing wild ideas at the problem with no general economic ideals behind them will not help anyone.


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## Bowstring (Nov 27, 2006)

buckseye said:


> > Tightening credit like this, if your serious not sure if youre venting or just sayinig, would cripple the economic system worse then anything.
> 
> 
> It is what is called a correction. And wouldn't hurt the majority who are responsible for paying for the irresponsible. Yeah I'm serious and I would do that and we would see no difference in the welfare lines. To many folks trying to outwit the government over paying taxes is a huge problem. In business you pay income tax on profit, if you can work the books to show no profit you show a loss. Then you cry for help, I lost money... what a hoax on ourselves!!! uke:


Cheating on taxes isn't just reserved for corporations! people can claim extra deductions for charitable contributions, etc. and not worry until you get audited.

Same with business showing more expenses than they have or reporting less income receipts.

If your a cheat you can do a lot to decease your tax liability....until you get audited!

Corporations realizing a loss are a loss to the share holders or the individual owner that he can use to lower his personal income that he received from his corporation, but he still pays income tax on what is taken as wages, salaries,bonus's etc. unless hes a cheat.

the IRS needs to catch the tax cheaters or go to a flat tax or better a national sales tax!!!


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## Bowstring (Nov 27, 2006)

TANATA said:


> buckseye said:
> 
> 
> > > Tightening credit like this, if your serious not sure if youre venting or just sayinig, would cripple the economic system worse then anything.
> ...


TANATA, You got it right! I wish more would.

..


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## buckseye (Dec 8, 2003)

> Tightening credit is 1 of the major problems we are facing.


Like I said that is not a problem for the majority of people in this country. Our problem is paying for those who do have that problem. Thank God there are still more self supportive folks than not.



> Obviously the government has more than enough money to sling around regardless, and most of income tax write-offs are their for a reason


So is that why we go deeper in debt every day?


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## Bowstring (Nov 27, 2006)

buckseye said:


> > Tightening credit is 1 of the major problems we are facing.
> 
> 
> Like I said that is not a problem for the majority of people in this country. Our problem is paying for those who do have that problem. Thank God there are still more self supportive folks than not.
> ...


*Yes Sir, your money and your kids, grand kids money. Just add the yearly deficit to the national debt. As long as the tax payers keep paying the interest on the national debt, 44 billion last year, no one will care.*


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## hammer007911 (Feb 4, 2009)

Just curious what you guys would guess for a bottom as in number?? 

Hammer


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## Eric Hustad (Feb 25, 2002)

Dollar lost averaging brings a smile to my face. This type of feeling is exactly what we need when the market is down like this as it signals that we are close to a bottom or have seen it. I have tripled my contributions to the kids college funds and like wise my SEP so while people sit and guess when the market bottoms I am in when it goes up. Imagine a shotgun you want to buy and you are hoping it goes on sale. Well now it is on sale by 50% yet you are going to wait and hope it drops more. Well now what happens when the price goes up and you haven't bought it yet?? You now missed out on owning an asset at a cheap price hoping it goes cheaper yet actually moves higher. Does it really matter if you could get it 5% cheaper when it is already down 50%??


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## hammer007911 (Feb 4, 2009)

Eric, I am still doing the same thing. But just for fun want to guess the bottom of the market for shiz and giggles.

Funny how so many investment guys on here want no part of guessing.

I have been wrong before and will be wrong more but at least I will guess :beer:

Hammer


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## Matt Jones (Mar 6, 2002)

Fetch wanted me to tell you guys that the market will bottom out at *666.*


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## Eric Hustad (Feb 25, 2002)

Ok Hammer I got what you are saying. How about 6400 as it is sounding like a few of these banks may report profits next month and that could really help investor confidence. Now this is just my opinion and I am not saying people should act on what I have written. Hammer asked for people to guess and I did so don't take this as advice. Now if it goes lower than that I will say I was joking


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## TANATA (Oct 31, 2003)

My guess back in January was 6500 for a low and I think I'm going to look like a genius here if I turn out right when all the guys on CNBC where wrong, but it was completely a guess. People have said bottum was 11k and then 9k and so on. Keep in mind these are wall street guys in the thick of knowing what's going on and have Master's degrees most often. Mine was pretty much completely a some what educated guess and so is everyone elses. Most investment guys won't give you a guess right now cause it's all in the air.

They are saying early 2010 for recovery so we might be stagnate all year, go down, or rally suddenly. All a waiting game right now but I wish I had more money to be throwing in that's for sure.


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## TANATA (Oct 31, 2003)

buckseye said:


> > Tightening credit is 1 of the major problems we are facing.
> 
> 
> Like I said that is not a problem for the majority of people in this country. Our problem is paying for those who do have that problem. Thank God there are still more self supportive folks than not.
> ...


We've spent almost 10 trillion dollars total. Do you think closing tax loopholes and tightening audits would have covered that anyways? NO, tax hampers production. The multiplier effect takes place when you cut taxes, which means a dollar not taxed by the government usually increases GDP by say 1.5x. So..... your logic is flaud, and the reason wall street and congress are not pushing for it.


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## buckseye (Dec 8, 2003)

If you do a bunch of little things that help it adds up to something noticeable. That is just one item not even close to what all needs to be done. We all know we don't have much or any faith in politicians and that is who runs the country so what more can we ask for... :lol:


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## Eric Hustad (Feb 25, 2002)

Good stuff Tanata!!! I'm just glad my kids aren't going to college right now and its a great reminder to all of us to plan ahead. As college/retirement comes closer you need to plan for it, but this has been one horrific drop that nobody could see coming. Lets hope better days are ahead :beer:


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## buckseye (Dec 8, 2003)

> but this has been one horrific drop that nobody could see coming


I don't know how any one could have missed seeing this mountain coming at them. Artificial limbs only work if attached to a living body. Credit is an artificial form of money. To many of the people in this country have lost the ability to think for themselves.


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## Eric Hustad (Feb 25, 2002)

I am talking about the depth of the crisis. When you look at some of the largest companies being brought down and bought etc. nobody could have predicted that i would reach the point it has. Now was a drop in the market expected?? yes because we pushed all time highs and its for it to come back down some but the bond and preferred market drops are just incredible. If I am understanding correctly what you wrote that you saw it coming is really good. I mean hindsight it 20/20, but to see this coming is pretty amazing.......


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## northdakotakid (May 12, 2004)

The multiplier affect works but what happens when a population has paid for curent goods with future earnings?

The multiplier affect is minimized because current cash flows go to fund debt... 
The marginal propensity to consume has and will decrease because of the decrease in household incomes... funding debt, cost of living ...

The marginal propensity to save was greatly decrease over the last 5 or so years because of the decrease in the rate of interest... meaning cheap money provided a percieved greater wealth multiplier by buying goods today with the future cost of the good rising as interest rates than saving capital...

Today... we see the Propensity to save increasing as "temporary" interuption in income is being felt and interest rates are percieved to go higher in the near future...

Until temporary interuption of income has decreased and the Propensity to save has decrease (interest rates...are going higher though)... the multiplier affect will severly under-perform.

Tax cuts could help to speed up the building of equity to a point of equilibrium... thus decreasing the propensity to save, but how will it affect the temporary disruption in income??

The only sustainable way to address the temporary disruption in income is to create jobs... tax relief will provide a small relief on cash flows... I agree but it is not large enough nor sustainable for the Federal Gvt to fund with current policy.

If this issue would have been addressed properly in the first Spending- I mean stimulus bill... I would feel much more comfortable. But it wasn't... the largest spending bill in the History of the world was not even given 24 hrs to be read by our elected officials... that is disgraceful... I don't care if you are a Dem Rep or Ind...

JOBS... JOBS... JOBS... tax breaks are a finger in the dam... helpful but only to buy time to find the right solution...


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## hammer007911 (Feb 4, 2009)

Eric Hustad said:


> Ok Hammer I got what you are saying. How about 6400 as it is sounding like a few of these banks may report profits next month and that could really help investor confidence. Now this is just my opinion and I am not saying people should act on what I have written. Hammer asked for people to guess and I did so don't take this as advice. Now if it goes lower than that I will say I was joking


Your funny!!! :lol:

You are either a lawyer, financial advisor, or online forum moderator with those wiggle words! Thanks for the guess.

I am still 100% cash and got out December of 07. It is kind of sad cuz every day it goes down I say to my self good better deal when I jump back in.

The real pain is going to be in August or September.

Hammer


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## DG (Jan 7, 2008)

http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/c ... d_169.html

U.S. Rep. admits run on banks that started financial meltdown was deliberate attack


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## TANATA (Oct 31, 2003)

northdakotakid said:


> The multiplier affect works but what happens when a population has paid for curent goods with future earnings?
> 
> The multiplier affect is minimized because current cash flows go to fund debt...
> The marginal propensity to consume has and will decrease because of the decrease in household incomes... funding debt, cost of living ...
> ...


The multiplier effect works both ways, with consumers and business, so even if you pay for something with future debt, it's better then not paying at all. The companies are still getting that money and turning a profit with it, which in turn leads them to doing more business and in turn, earning the bank more money. Also, the multiplier is the mutliplier effect, it is as simple as 2.5, not 2.5^4th power or something of that nature. If a dollar is being spent or a million, the same multiplier should take effect in identical markets.

Interest rates were very similar in the beginning of 07 with that of beginning year 95-99. In fact, interest rates where sharply increasing from 04-08. Consumer irresponsibility and the sharp increase in house prices allowing people to pull large amounts of money out of their home was one of the biggest problems, cause people suddenly have 75k and happily spend it, but can't refinance out of their crappy negative am. mortgage 3 years down the road because housing prices dropped. Now they can barely afford their payments and no longer have money to save or spend in market.


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## buckseye (Dec 8, 2003)

Things tend to follow the cost of energy, all my life so far anyway. Its weird with energy cost down and the interest rates down at the same time, I'm pretty sure that had something to do with it. The real problem is the US was really taken to the cleaners the last 4-5 years in energy cost, that wiped out so many peoples budgets its incredible. We are just getting to the reaction part of that action.

I want to compliment you young guys and thank you for being out working and schooling to better yourself and your family.


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## Eric Hustad (Feb 25, 2002)

Thanks Buckseye for the compliment as with three kids and my wife working full time it can be a challenge. It was interesting last summer with oil how when it got to a certain price the country just cut way back and the boom ended. The higher costs forced people to stop spending along with the falling real estate market and it looked like the perfect storm. Now normally when you have big gain in stocks you take a certain percentage out and put it in bonds etc. banks tending to be the safest bet as you ride the downturn out and falling interest rates help your bonds. This time however bonds especially in banks got crushed and there just wasnt many places to hide as retired folks have a hard time living off the income from cd's. This is what has made this so much harder on investors, but we will get past this and recover. I just wonder in 4-5 years if people will have learned from this or not.


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## mymanimal (Feb 1, 2009)

Bowstring said:


> I got out of the stock market August 2007, haven't got back in yet. In a volatile market you will have a hard time picking the bottom. With that in mind I'll see the market increase around 5% before I'm gong in, hopefully it will continue then.  I think it will be a up and down market once it gets going,buy on the lows and sell on the highs. Do a little profit taking like the big boys once and awhile hopefully. :beer: no crash and burn for my assets if I can help it.


Jan 08 for me - pulled everything and have no regrets. It will be years before I put anything back in.


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## buckseye (Dec 8, 2003)

Your welcome Eric.. Yep by the time folks had their gas tank and their stomach full there was no money left to pay bills. Look at the increase in Welfare across this country, not just in the cities. People hung their heads and tried unfortunately some were just plain in over their heads.


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## TANATA (Oct 31, 2003)

mymanimal said:


> Bowstring said:
> 
> 
> > I got out of the stock market August 2007, haven't got back in yet. In a volatile market you will have a hard time picking the bottom. With that in mind I'll see the market increase around 5% before I'm gong in, hopefully it will continue then.  I think it will be a up and down market once it gets going,buy on the lows and sell on the highs. Do a little profit taking like the big boys once and awhile hopefully. :beer: no crash and burn for my assets if I can help it.
> ...


Years before you get back in will be after the upswing has already started and will cause you to miss out on large gains. It is a great idea to get into large blue chip stocks soon, as the market reaches what is thought to be bottum.

Wal-Mart - pays dividends and is down almost $20 on the year, not going out of business....

Exxon-Mobil- price was almost cut in half this year, pays dividend, and as we all know it will rally again, just a matter of time.

Coca Cola - pays dividend, price is down from over $60 to less than $40. Coke is not going out of business and their sales are rarely going to be affected by a credit crisis.

If I had a large sum of money and did not need it for 5 years, I would be putting almost all of it into large cap stocks right now. Like a bargain bin full of Swarovski and Weatherbys!


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## buckseye (Dec 8, 2003)

Exxon-Mobile recorded profits of 45 billion last quarter. That's a couple homes fo sho!! They are getting ready for something big!


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## TANATA (Oct 31, 2003)

buckseye said:


> Exxon-Mobile recorded profits of 45 billion last quarter. That's a couple homes fo sho!! They are getting ready for something big!


If I wasn't already deep in the hole with school debt I would love to be getting in on some exxon. I don't think alternative fuels are going to realistically threaten oil anytime real soon unfortunately.


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## hammer007911 (Feb 4, 2009)

I am dumping in 50% today out of fear of missing a run up! :-?

Hammer


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## TANATA (Oct 31, 2003)

hammer007911 said:


> I am dumping in 50% today out of fear of missing a run up! :-?
> 
> Hammer


Depending what stocks you're putting it into, I see no problem in putting it all in. The probability of it going any lower is much smaller than the chance of it rallying, meaning you are better of statistically getting in now. That goes in saying you are putting it into relatively safe stocks like I talked about before. Financials are still kinda shaky for me to trust since there seems to be a lot of cover up and questions still. Such as why AIG can't tell us what they did with that 100 billion we gave them haha.


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## TANATA (Oct 31, 2003)

I hope everyone re-reads this article and sees,,,,, who was correct was correct!!! The problem is "the majority is always wrong". And that is a story that is often taught true to new wall street invesotor recruits. If you want to learn, settle down and listen, if you don't, stop complaining about your rich classmates.


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## Eric Hustad (Feb 25, 2002)

Tanata that was good stuff. It was interesting to look back at all the gloom and doom etc. This is a great lesson to all investors especiall younger ones: buy the fear sell the greed. Do the opposite of what the majority does and you will be way ahead financially going into retirement. Also goes to show why there is a small number of wealthy people etc. Last year you predicted a bottom of 6500 while I said 6400, congrats on a great call. I wrote that last year could be the chance of a lifetime and the averages had a record 6-month return. People who pulled their money out and missed this will in some cases never recover due to age etc. It will have a crippling affect one a lot of people but again thats why some people have money, retire early and some work till they die and never have much. For you younger guys its a great lesson as you cant make money if you dont take the chance and have faith in the country. Oh and when I said I had tripled my contributions to IRA's college fund etc. yeah the reward for the risk is a 40% gain in less than a year on the money invested.

Remember there will always be ups and downs and some move severe or robust than average. Each time the market drops you will hear the same stuff: country going broke, conspiracy theories etc. When these people sell you buy and profit on their loss. Look at this thread as proof....


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## PJ (Oct 1, 2002)

Yeah, that's why I would be selling gold like crazy right now not buying. Everyone buys at the top end then *****es when the bubble pops. :eyeroll:


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## stock-man (Mar 6, 2010)

it is good to sell gold at this time even investing in it not bad at present


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