# Where are they now....



## Sean Ehmke (Jan 4, 2006)

Well went to Kansas City over the weekend and noticed several flocks trying to head north along the I-29 corridor. I haven't heard much about Squaw Creek but from the border of IA/MO to St Joe received 3-5 inches of heavy wet snow. Not much snow o the ground from the border north though. I would think the geese would stop at Smithville Lake (KC) and then fly north past the snow. I would think if you wanted to free lance spots in Missouri I would follow the interstate especially around the rest stop south of Dearborn, man did they have that corn field covered.

Sean


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## cobbhead (Jan 14, 2008)

Finished out the dark goose season in Colorado yesterday, great hunting! The amazing thing is the volume of snows in the Platte River valley! We saw snows from Ft. Morgan to Julesburg. You have to understand CO isn't exactly the epicenter of snow goose hunting, but we must have seen 50k flying the valley. The ratio of snows/blues was 90/10---that's high for us, normally 99.2/.8 which tells me some central flyway birds have bled over into our flyway. Normally we see the Bosque Del Apache flock, almost entirely snows with a few Ross geese. Makes me wonder what the migration is up to.

We're packed and ready to go to Nebraska, currently thinking the 1st week in March should catch the front of the migration. Sure would like to see the various websites light up with information, my favorite haunts are disappointly quiet so far.

Steve


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## goosegrinder (Mar 4, 2005)

Simple survival on their part. Eastern part of Nebraska,Missouri,and western Iowa are froze up. Birds are going farther west to get around the ice and the snow cover where there is any. Think they did the same thing last year on a smaller scale.It's time for them to migrate and if that means bouncing a little off their normal path to do so and to stay on track then IMO they do it.

Alex


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## cobbhead (Jan 14, 2008)

Goosegrinder,

I suspect you are correct about the western movement of the flock. I hunt both Nebraska and SD, will hold out for the migration into the Rainwater which I have every confidence will happen. My buddies in SD are talking maybe Pierre instead of DeSmet this year because of the snow cover. I'm still curious about the numbers of blues. If you run east on 80 across Nebraska like we do a couple three times every spring, the snows go from nearly 100% white in CO and western Nebraska around Big Springs to the 60/40 split you see in the Rainwater/SD flocks. Your premise holds some validity due to the numbers of blues we're seeing. Think I'll post on Waterfowler.com and see if Caruluens responds--he seems to know most everything about the migration movements. I did get a call from a guide in Great Bend, KS telling me they've got something like 400k snows on Quivera over the weekend. Wonder if some of them are angling Northwest?


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## Sean Ehmke (Jan 4, 2006)

I would have to agree. Unless we get rid of some of this snow you will probably hear more geese at night flying over than you will see them during the day. Plus with not that much snow west of Omaha there is a good possibility they will shift west or atleast the bulk of them will.


Sean


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## Traxion (Apr 16, 2004)

So have any of the past years' migrations shaped up anything like this year? HOw far have the brids gone to the west when the snow was thick to the east? Curious!


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## Goose Guy350 (Nov 29, 2004)

Its still a bit early and we have another week to 10 days before we have to worry and a lot can happen in that amount of time but if I just whisper "fly by" to my contacts in NW MO they about have a heart attack!!! :wink:


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## Brad Harris (Mar 7, 2002)

I just got back from Great Bend, there is no where close to 400K there. I would guess 100k.


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## cobbhead (Jan 14, 2008)

Brad,
I should have known better than to believe an outfitter! 100k sounds more believable to me.

Steve


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## Ty (Mar 11, 2004)

Ill bet my dog and shotgun that the snows no matter what wont pass up the basins.

Ill post some pics for you guys Monday morning if you think they are skirting to western Nebraska. :roll:


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## cobbhead (Jan 14, 2008)

Ty,
I don't think they'll skirt the basin either, just some of 'em are bleeding out into Colorado IMO. As stated. this is based on a very unscientific observation that we have an unusually high number of snows and a real population of blues which is unheard of out here.
We know the basin will get it's normal 3-4 million over the next six weeks and are loaded with the trucks pointed east just waiting for the first big wave to hit Nebraska. I'm personally betting on the first week of March. I, too would bet my dog, except no one that knows her would take the bet for fear they'd be stuck with a misbehaving three legged Springer!

Steve


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## orrghead16 (Dec 29, 2005)

Ty said:


> Ill bet my dog and shotgun that the snows no matter what wont pass up the basins.
> 
> Ill post some pics for you guys Monday morning if you think they are skirting to western Nebraska. :roll:


The same will hold for squaw and MO. The snow goose flyway through Kansas is just simply not that large, especially compared to the amount that flies through Missouri. It would take a lot more snow and at a time period later so that they are more rushed, to see any drastic change to the migration route. Right now, the snows are in no rush.

Some snows are going to come into NE through KS and those birds will be trickling in as we speak without snow to stop them. But the amount of birds that come into NE directly N through KS is absolutely minute to the amount that comes in heading NW through Missouri. The basins are going to see (and are seeing a few right now) a few birds moving in from KS. But for the most significant fraction to have their migration route completely changed by 3-5" of snow is a little out there.

Good Hunting,
PATRICK OLSON


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## JuvyPimp (Mar 1, 2005)

Cobb you have to remember that the blue is a dominent gene. If a snow and blue mate and they have 5 chicks. All 5 chicks will be blues. So that is 6 blues to 1 snow in just one family. It creates a ripple affect. Eventually there will only be blues. It will take a long time but it will happen so I have read.

I can remember when shooting a blue in Colorado was a rare and just about every one was mounted. Now you will see 2-6 in every 50 sometimes. There will be more and more every year. I dont think we are getting the eastern central flyway birds I just think the gene pool in our flocks is changing. I bet 30 years from now it will be just like hunting in NE/SD now with the snow to blue ratios.


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## cobbhead (Jan 14, 2008)

Juvie,
I agree with your statement and am aware of the dominant blue genes, but, once again very unscientifically, Sunday looked to me to be a VERY dramatic increase in blues. I don't hunt CO snows seriously, but have bragging rites in my group for having killed three in the past 10 years! Head to the Rainwater or central S.D. and you'll shoot 20 in a day if you pick on them! Am I panicked that all the snows are headed here? Hell no but think it is indicative of a significant movement in the migration. I suspect a previous post hit the nail on the head, we are seeing Kansas geese which isn't a significant part of the central flyway population. Those of us that have a field lined up in NE Colorado will do well this weekend. Me? I'm washing decoys Saturday!

Steve


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## joebobhunter4 (Jul 19, 2005)

if blue geese is the dominant gene why is there so many snow geese now?
wouldnt it have started years ago...


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## Ridge Nelson (Jan 19, 2006)

Goose Guy350 said:


> Its still a bit early and we have another week to 10 days before we have to worry and a lot can happen in that amount of time but if I just whisper "fly by" to my contacts in NW MO they about have a heart attack!!! :wink:


Not cool dude 8) Im predicting since you said that that this year they are going to be here longer than any other year. :wink:


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## orrghead16 (Dec 29, 2005)

joebobhunter4 said:


> if blue geese is the dominant gene why is there so many snow geese now?
> wouldnt it have started years ago...


Genetic drift takes places over a very, very long time period. This fact is only compound by the fact that snow geese cannot be measured as one single population, but primarily only by colony. This is why you see colonies on the Eastern arctic that are 80-100% blues and the colonies on the west are slim to nill blues. The fact is migration towards blue-dominant colonies has started years ago, but the relative amounts of blue alleles in a population can only increase so fast.

A simple understanding of genetics is also helpful. To sort of simplify it, the blue morph is controlled by a single gene. Most blues are heterozygous for the blue gene, meaning they have one blue and one white allele. A heterozygous or homozygous goose for the blue gene will be a blue. Only homozygous for the white gene will be snow. In reality, it is a question of how many blue alleles are present in a certain population (colony). However, not all blues produce all blue young. If a heterozygous blue mates with a snow, 50% of the young will be blues (roughly, although not exactly true because of more advanced genetics). Even with the population moving towards the blue phase, we will never see a completely (or even remotely close) conversion of snows to all blues within the near future, excluding some change in environmental or selection factor, etc.

Now all of this kind of kind of assumes that the population is moving toward Hardy-Wienberg equilibrium, which certainly won't happen because of so many other factors involved (i.e. Geese are much more likely to select mates with a similar color phase to their parents, predation, migration between colonies, etc.).


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## echoXLT (Aug 27, 2007)

Man that just took me back to when I took biology...kind of hurt a little to try and remember. :beer:


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## diver_sniper (Sep 6, 2004)

orrghead16 said:


> joebobhunter4 said:
> 
> 
> > if blue geese is the dominant gene why is there so many snow geese now?
> ...


Took the words right out of my mouth...er... fingertips I should say. I was all hyped up to say the exact same thing until I read all the way to the bottom of the page.

To me, it seems the main reason we won't see a mass influx of blues is because of the tendency of female birds to choose a mate that is of the same coloration as their parents. Studies show that a female with 2 white parents chooses a white mate 90% of the time, a female with two blue parents picks a blue mate 78% of the time, and a female with mixed parents goes with a white mate 62% of the time. In the last two cases you must consider the fact that there are more snows than blues in most colonies, which is probably why we don't see a 50-50 blue to snow mate ratio among those females.

Another thing, considering there are usually more snows than blues, more often than not the blues that you see won't be homozygous with the dominant blue gene. They'll have the one dominant(actually semi or partially dominant) and one recessive gene. Meaning that if they mate with a snow, which will always be homozygous recessive, half of their offspring will still be white.

I find that interesting, because when you shoot a blue, simply looking at it should give you a clue as to which genes it has. The darker the belly the more likely that it's homozygous with the blue gene. That's because the semi-dominant blue gene leaves a small amount of room for the recessive white gene to be expressed. So if a homozygous snow and a heterozygous blue have blue offspring, because of the semi-dominance, the gene of the offspring isn't expressed the same way that a completely dominant phenotype would be. I've heard lots of people claim that the lightness or darkness of the belly on a blue can give you a hint as to how old that bird is, when in fact age actually has nothing to do with it.

To simplify it if this is confusing to anyone, here's how it breaks down:

B=the blue gene
w=the snow gene

For this trait, every bird has 2 genes, because upon conception, one of the genes that each parent has is passed down at random.

If it has just one B gene, it is 100% of the time a blue, because the B gene trumps the w gene.

BB mates with BB = offspring are all blues
Bw mates with BB = offspring are all blues
ww mates with BB = offspring are all blues
ww mates with Bw = offspring are half blues, half snows
ww mates with ww = offspring are all snows
Bw mates with Bw = offspring are 3/4 blues 1/4 snows

Well, that was a nice way to burn up a little chunk of my evening

:beer:


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## JuvyPimp (Mar 1, 2005)

ww mates with BB = offspring are all blues

Thats what I was talking about


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## possumfoot (Nov 7, 2006)

BB+ww BB+ww
= = 
Bw + Bw = BB,Bw,Bw,ww
Bw + Bw = BB,Bw,Bw,ww 
Bw + Bw = BB,Bw,Bw,ww 
Bw + Bw = BB,Bw,Bw,ww 
total in 2 generations is 12 blue and 4 snow


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## diver_sniper (Sep 6, 2004)

possumfoot said:


> BB+ww BB+ww
> = =
> Bw + Bw = BB,Bw,Bw,ww
> Bw + Bw = BB,Bw,Bw,ww
> ...


Yep. That's true. I still don't think the accumulative population on the continent will see blues outnumbering snows any time soon though.


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## orrghead16 (Dec 29, 2005)

Keep in mind that most homozygous blues will not ever mate with a snow. Simply because a homozygous blue had two blue parents and is more than likely to pick a blue mate. Odds are the blue will mate with a blue, producing all blues (if homozygous, which most blues are not anyways. So most blue x blue will results in 1/4 snows.) This is one of the reasons why the blue gene gets so secluded.

I agree with diver that although lots of numbers seem to point in the way of moving towards a blue dominated population, I doubt it will ever move that way significantly. There are just not simply enough blue alleles in the population in order to do that.


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