# Snow Goose Spring Hatch Information



## nodakoutdoors.com

If my memory serves me correctly, this is the critical time of year and I'm not familiar with all the colony conditions.

Anyone hearing any information from the tundra yet?


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## cgreeny

I had spoke with a guy who works with USFWS and he heard some of the conditions were perfect when the birds got there and things were goign well. But who knows, the weather can change quicker and much worse than it can here.


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## h2ofwlr

Not so..... remember the areas are huge in expanse. Yes SW Hudson Bay is good, and AK is too, but that is it. Central artic area had a blizzard last week. Spring is delayed. Definately no bumper crop this year.

I just wrote this earlier this afternoon and was going to post it up here when I saw this topic.

*Concern over the 2008 Snow Hatch.*

Well the signs are we'll be lucky to have an average hatch this year. More likely a fair to poor hatch based upon several factors.

1st it is not an early spring on the tundura. So no bumper hatch like 2 & 3 years ago when their spring was 1 to 2 weeks earlier than average. Remember an earlier spring also means a warmer early summer temps too. which translates into a lessened chance for summer blizzards.

I just learned a few minutes ago that last week the central artic had blizzards and NO SNOWS have arrived yet. That is not good news at all.

There is some good news though, a few weeks ago the western artic (AK and NWT) were above average temps so spring was on time up there, but that is Pacific and western Central flyway birds (go through AB and down the rockies and nwinter in NM).

But the mid continent birds which we hunt (eastern Central flyway and MS flyway) are not as good shape. They nest from North of AB over the north of Hudsons Bay. And they have been cool thus far.

Here is an overview of weather through out the Snow nesting areas.

Easy reference map of Nunavut, Canada http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=htt ... image&cd=1

FYI, Iqaluit, Nunavut, Canada (east end of Baffin Island) is Greater Snows (Atlantic flyway), and they are average temps forcasted too, high of 40s which is average weather considering how for N they are. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/CANU0014

Churchill, MB Has warmed up nicely, 60s and even 70s forcasted next week. And sunny weather after this weekend. http://www.accuweather.com/canada-forec ... c=1&set=99 The Snows on the southern breeding grounds should be doing good.

But cool in northern parts of Hudson Bay... 40 if that.

Rankin Inlet, NU a bit cool http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/CANU0021

Coral Harbour, NU a bit cool http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/CANU0009

Cape Dorset, NU cool there too http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/CANU0006

Gjoa Haven, Nunavut Nice weather up there, warm in 50s to 70s, sunny for next week. http://www.accuweather.com/canada-forec ... c=1&set=99 But this region had the blizzard last week.

Resolute, Nunavuthas warmed up too and should remain warm. http://www.accuweather.com/canada-forec ... c=1&set=99 You'll notice the east to west channel, that is the Parry Channel and no Snows are known to nest north of there.

Cambridge Bay Cold and snowy next few days, but warming up next week. http://www.accuweather.com/canada-forec ... c=1&set=99

Kugluktuk, Nunavut, a bit cool right now, but are to warn up next week http://www.accuweather.com/canada-forec ... c=1&set=99

Taloyoak, NU, (600 miles N of Churchill in the high artic) a bit cool yet bet warmeing up next week. http://www.accuweather.com/canada-forec ... c=1&set=99

Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories Has really warmed up they are talking 70 next week! http://www.accuweather.com/canada-forec ... c=1&set=99

Kaktovik, Alaska a bit cool, but warming up http://www.accuweather.com/forecast-15d ... 7&metric=0

Barrow, AK 50s for highs and sunny http://www.accuweather.com/forecast-15d ... 3&metric=0

NW part of Hudsons Bay has been average to cooler than average the last 2 weeks. Other parts NW and N of there are about average to below average temps. Over all the high Artic N & NW of Hudson Bay is experiencing a delay in nesting due to cooler and cloudy/rain/snow weather up through next week.

If I remember correctly, June 15 was drop dead deadline for them to be nesting by, otherwise the young will not be able to be strong enough to make the journey out of the Artic come Fall.

Synopsis: 
I'd say there still is a decent chance for about an slightly below average hatch based upon the weather the last few weeks and the forcasts, some areas will be below average hatch. Very doubtful a bumper hatch like 2 & 3 years ago due to no early spring this year. Scale of 1 to 10, I'd say a 4 at this point at best. If the weather does not improve immediately, do not be surprised if it ranks as a 2 like last year. (The Western Artic had an average hatch-the Eastern 2/3 was below average to non existent last year). For a 1 to happen all of the artic would need to be a poor hatch. But the birds we hunt are in the eastern 2/3 of the Artic. Basically Nunavut province and the northerneastern part of MB (MB accounts for a small portion of MS population as the vast majority are in NU province).

We'll know for sure in 6 weeks when they release the reports.


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## dblkluk

Couple ?? for you h20fwlr...
Did you come up with a #4 hatch on the scale of 1-10 based on weather forecasts and todays temps? 
Although weather has a huge impact, there has got to be much more to a successful hatch than just the high and low temps.

Excuse my lack of confidence in your "findings" but I would be curious to see some of the data that supports your theories, other than links to todays and tommorows weather..
Unless I'm supposed to believe everything the weatherman tells me?

Example: Where did this info come from?


> Central artic area had a blizzard last week. Spring is delayed.





> I just learned a few minutes ago that last week the central artic had blizzards and NO SNOWS have arrived yet.





> We'll know for sure in 6 weeks when they release the reports.


I think I'll stick with the data that comes from that report. And hope it brings more "optimism" than your weather report.

I guess I'm a "glass half full" kinda guy..
:wink:

But I suppose a weak hatch is a good thing for the overall health of the snow goose populations.


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## Trapperjack

H2O,

Did you write that report from your MN keyboard or did a biologist? If so, who?


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## Aaron1

You can never fully trust or agree with a resident of MN!! :lol: And yes, that is from his keyboard. I'll give you credit H20, you are watching the weather closely but until I hear it from a biologist working up there I won't believe anything.


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## Aaron1

By the way, who ranked last year as a 2? Where can I see a detailed report of how this 1-10 ranking system works and exactly what a 2 was? I hope those snow geese know that June 15 is this Sunday and they are waisting their time after that!! Snow geese may become so smart that they'll read the internet and use this useful information to better themselves.


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## HonkerExpress

I don't know why you guys are all up in H20's grille, I mean, this guy is like a seasoned veteran of the waterfowl industry. If he is telling us something I think we should be able to take it to the bank, I am sure he has seen all of this in the past. I agree 100% with what H20 says.

If H20 tells me to jump, I would say How High?

Keep rocking it H20 :beer:


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## h2ofwlr

Seems I ruffled a few of you guys feathers, eh? And I did not even try to do so. Some are getting thin skinned it seems.

So why don't you guys take the time to research things? It is not that hard to do really. Come up with your own forecast. Or is it then you could not take shots at me and be like the oboxious fan in the stand at a ball game if you did so?

"Blizzards in central Artic and no Snows yet", from a guy that talked to someone last week that lives up there.

"Delayed nesting" from a biologist.

"I just wrote this earlier this afternoon" some of the guys reading comprehension really makes me wonder at times.... Is that not clear that I wrote the forecast?

Last years hatch ranking a 2 based upon all the reports, do you really want me to produce the estimates from the last 20 years and use statistical analysis to prove it to you? I have a better idea, you do it as I have better things to do. Everybody knows if they read the reports, were hunting that it was the poorest hatch ever in recents times. Only the western artic hatch saved it from being a 1 as they had a average hatch there.

And I said (my prediction) that this years hatch "at best" would be a 4. Meaning it could get worse....

Guys the snow has to melt before they nest. Snow = no nest initialtion. Delayed nesting = less young making the migration. IF the weather warms up this week to melt the snow so the tundura grasses are exposed they have a chance for an average hatch yet. If it does not and the tundura is still snow covered, the success rate keeps slipping downward as time goes on. Pretty simple concept is it not? They have a small window of oppurtunity to mest and raise the gosling to the point they are strong enough to make it south to the priairies in Oct.

Now if you want to disagree with me based upon the last month and current weather is and on factual reports from the tundura, fine please do so. Then at least provide proof of your basis of your forecast VS blowing smoke in my face because I happened to research this more than most here ever do. (many of you are capable of it too if you took the time). Otherwise it is just that -blowing smoke- its off season and lets stir the pot mentality here because you have nothing better to do.

And the ND VS non resident thing is getting real old. On this site members come from all over the US. Time a few ND guys grew the hell up. We are ALL hunters, why can we not concentrate on that?


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## KEN W

I think H2O's forcasts and analysis have been very good. :thumb:


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## Trapperjack

How much did the dew berry crop predictions in TX play in your forecast?

It's too early yet for someone with only internet knowledge to be predicting with any type of accuracy on the snow goose hatch that is still basically in the beginning of their season! :withstupid: 
Not to mention thousands of miles away!

Any of your work published?


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## h2ofwlr

Trapperjack said:


> How much did the dew berry crop in TX play in your forecast?


None Totally based upon weather reports and conversations with Govt people.

Won't really know that (dewberries) for another month it seems.
I know of Texans that will swear on a stack of bibles that it is 100% accurate though for what it is worth.
But they had bumper crops in 05 and 06 and we had record hatches of Snows and last year was a dismall crop and the hatch was poor. Go figure. Coincidence? Or a corralation? You be the judge. But Texans have said for years there is a corraltion. Likely due to weather patterns in the western Hemisphere. Some meterologist should do their doctorate on it.


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## barebackjack

Ya well I talked to a guy that knows a guy that used to date a chick who knew the gal that cut the hair of a guy thats dog used to be walked by a kid whos dad dated a girl whos dad once served with a guy whos wife got her nails trimmed by a gal whos boyfriends sisters cousin husband used to work for the USFWS. And he says its all gooooooood.

SO THERE! :beer:


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## h2ofwlr

ND Hillbilly! They were all cousins of yours :lol:


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## HonkerExpress

H20, easy with the nodak comments or your god like status will soon go down a notch on the totem pole in my book.

I am going to get a shirt made up with your picture on it and on the back put my freakin idol. WWH20FOWLERD

Translation:
What Would H20Fowler Do

Any chance I can get you to send me a picture H20, something shirt worthy?


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## goose_caller

HonkerExpress said:


> Any chance I can get you to send me a picture H20, something shirt worthy?


Something like this? Your a King of Photoshop Perch!!!!!


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## goosehunternd

lol I laugh evertime I see that :beer:


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## HonkerExpress

Ah, the king himself. lmao, thats who should be the king in all those burger king commercials.


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## Salacia340

I don't know anything about cousins, or sisters or nail people... and I don't talk to this person or that person.... but I can use the internet. I may not read but I look at the pictures.... here are pics from 2006 and from this year - not much different. A little colder near the Queen Maude Gulf but Baffin Island looks better to me and everything else looks about the same as 2006 or just a little better... everything looks a lot better than 2005 but... what do I know, I only look at pictures????

2006 - http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/ ... 63_usa.gif

2008 -
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/ ... ow_usa.gif

And here is 2005
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/ ... 64_usa.gif


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## Goose Guy350

Aw..........the offseason, no one can say the right thing. If you guys don't like a post or prediction take it with a grain of salt, no big deal.

H20fwlr thanks for the prediction. I look at hatch predictions like some people look at sports predictions, some are good, some are bad, some are close and some far off but they are all fun to listen to and some are real educational. :beer:


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## MuleyMan

Gotta hate the doldrums of summer!! Guys just remember that these are just projected forecasts for what the "potential" nesting success could be. Nothing definative can or should assumed as of yet. The official report will be out soon enough and from that we'll all know what kind of recruitment there will be in the population for the upcoming season.


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## h2ofwlr

Yes Barry I'm the King of C&P.......

Here is 2007 june 12 since some want to look at pictures for comparison. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/ ... 63_usa.gif

July 1 2005 http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/ ... 82_usa.gif
July 1 2006 http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/ ... 82_usa.gif
July 1 2007 http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/ ... 82_usa.gif

Part of the problem is the pictures do not show all the Artic.


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## scissorbill

I am a bit confused here,maybe some of you prostaffers could help. Let's see now, we have had a Spring snow goose season for 10 years or so obstensibly to reduce the out of control mid continent population because if not they will eat up the tundra and all become diseased and die. Now I learn that it is a huge expanse and we sound disappointed that we are not having a "bumper crop". That is good news Right? I figured by now the tundra would have been completly eaten up . What gives ? I would be willing to bet even with no hatch we will have another "conservation order" next Spring, What do you think?


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## goose_caller

Well my only problem with the "snow geese killing the tundra" is sure we have seen some pictures of areas grubbed to bare earth.....but what is the extent of this? The tundra is a massive place and waterfowl have proven to adapt very well to new areas......have they wrecked 1% of the breeding grounds? 5%? 1/100%? I know this will come off as bad sounding, but every talks about how we should drill in ANWR....this is also in an area used by snow geese.....should we also not do this because it will kill artic grounds used by the geese? Or do we drill way because 99.999999999% of our citizens will NEVER see this ground in their life?

Its kind of like global warming, I believed all the hype until I dug around and found the hard numbers myself to prove Al Gore wrong......I would love to see some hard numbers on the impact of snow geese on the tundra.


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## h2ofwlr

The key to the Snows is where they breed. Meaning it is not inland areas, but rather the costal plains and marshes of Hudson Bay the main water ways of salt water. Realistically speaking we are talking about a 1 to 5 mile wide strips along these bodies of water from what I have gathered in reading about their breeding areas. The inland areas are not used as it is not suitable for the sedges they need to feed on. Another important part of this is that these salt water plains along the coasts is once the vegetation is denude by the Snows, due to evaporation, the salt comes to the surface and no plants of food value can then grow. Thus permanently (a min of 100 years, likley longer) this area is worthless to birds and other wildlife. The scientistist had done inventory of all species of plants and wildlife in sections of these areas many years ago, and then took inventory of the same section after the denuding by the Snows. If I recall correctly 99% drop off in wildlife #s. But also understand that it is not just the Snows, but the other birds and animals that use the same terrain that the biologists are worried about when it is denuded. And as mentioned above, the coast lines are not limitless. Think of the our Atlantic coast VS all the inland areas. Very similar in that regards in the Artic.

As for global warming and the impact on Snow geese. Well obviously if it is warmer up there, they have a better chance of having improved nesting results. Also less miles travelled in the winter migration. The Snows are not going as far South as they used to. I believe it is a combo of 2 things, warmer winters and change of available food sources for them further north. But there is perhaps some indicattion the Snows are traveling further north than years ago. Every year the biologists are finding small colonies not before know and documented. But there used to be a huge colony just North of Churchhill, about 434K Snows, they have been down to 150K lately. So have some of these birds migrated further north as a result of availble vegetation due to warmer temps in the Artic? That is plausable, but they do not know if that is happening. They do know a mojority of the birds at that colony are gone, and these smaller colonies further North have been found. Lets just say is is possible that is what may be happening.

And this is no fiction--but scientific fact--the temps up there are much warmer in the last decade compared to the last Century temps. Now by much warmer, we are talking about 3 degrees. Some may not think that is much, but that is huge for an average mean temp jump. So warm that the perma frost is starting to melt in the southern portion of the perma frost areas and the year around ice pack has less thickness.

For me, there is no doubt in my mind that the temps in North America are warming up as I've seen the statistical data that proves it. Basic meterology of temps archived shows it clearly.

What I do not concure with the enviro zealots (Gore) is why the temps are up. They say pollution, etc.. But in my mind there is doubt as to the cause. Perhaps it is a natural cycle, like the mini ice age in the 1300s, maybe this is a mini tropical age? But they could be right that it is pollution. I don't know, and I really have not seen anything that I've read that can dispute without a doubt of why it is happening. So they just do not know why at this point in time.

So there is a BIG difference IF we are getting warmer weather, and WHY we have having warmer weather. Please do not confuse the 2.


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## hunt4P&amp;Y

Man this globe has warmed up so much that the summer just skips us and is going to ge back to winter..... :idiot:


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## goose_caller

OMG Al Gore is right.....all the carbon we are belching out is warming the earth.....or maybe it is just warming itself like the other thousands of cycles in the last billion years. Its funny, my father tells stories of in the 70's there where news shows on how we are going to combat the new ice age they thought was starting.....doom and gloom....doom and gloom.

My problem with spring snow geese, if there was a major problem why don't they just nip it in the butt right now? Would not be all that hard to wipe out a few million snows in a couple of days when they are bunched up.


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## h2ofwlr

hunt4P&Y said:


> Man this globe has warmed up so much that the summer just skips us and is going to ge back to winter..... :idiot:


Just be glad GF does not have perma frost :lol:


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## h2ofwlr

goose_caller said:


> My problem with spring snow geese, if there was a major problem why don't they just nip it in the butt right now? Would not be all that hard to wipe out a few million snows in a couple of days when they are bunched up.


Quite simply is the general society would be in an uproar about the mass slaughter. Polictically unacceptable means to do so. Also so who it going to pay for it?

But for arguments sake IF they were to use extrordinary measures they would need to use the least costiest method. So the easied way to put a major dent is use a C-147 with mini guns. They can put a bullet every square foot 100yds wide for a 1/2 mile on a single pass. Make 2-3 passes on each big colony. Yes a lot of bullets miss, but it would be chepest based upon the very high cost of getting manpower up there. A Herculees can be refueled mid air if need be too. Question is can it carry enough ammo? I'd say 2 weeks up there with 1 crew could put a dent in their population. I'm just not sure if the air strip at Churchill is long enough for it and the tanker jets to land on. I bet it can be done for around $5-7million

These "societal" pressure is why the MN DNR had a 4 duck limit the other year. They take surveys and gauge the publics reaction VS going soley upon biological basis. And the USFWS does it too (surveys and weigh possible reactions).

So we all know it is not politically possible to do so. The general public would be not too happy about it. And heads would roll before it was implimented.


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## scissorbill

goose caller-- you are starting to use the old noggin some, Same can't be said for many on this subject. Nice Work.


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## Trapperjack

H2O,

A C-147 with mini guns? OMG! The area these birds nest equates to thousands upon thousands of square miles are you really serious with some of this "stuff"? Also, just how close do you think these birds nest from each other? Ya, let's led poison the entire tundra! :withstupid:


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## goose_caller

Trapperjack said:


> H2O,
> 
> A C-147 with mini guns? OMG! The area these birds nest equates to thousands upon thousands of square miles are you really serious with some of this "stuff"? Also, just how close do you think these birds nest from each other? Ya, let's led poison the entire tundra! :withstupid:


How about a quick pass over Squaw, then a couple pools in the basin....then top her off with a pass over Sand.....problem solved in two hours of flight.....use FMJ if your worried about the lead...LOL :sniper:


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## scissorbill

Trapperjack
You say the nesting area is thousands upon thousands of square mile yet for years we were told the snow geese were eating it all. Whats up with that? Any chance the Spring season will be eliminated if we have a poor hatch?


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## Trapperjack

No chance that the CO will be eliminated due to a poor hatch or even a few poor hatches since the problem lies with the adult breeding population. Even if the population does come under control the late season hunts up until March 10th will still probably remain just to keep the birds in check. The attitude will probably be, "if the population did it once it will probably do it again".

Take a look at a map of northern Canada. The light geese nest around Hudson Bay, Baffin Island, up around the northern coast all the way to Alaska! New colonies are being discovered each year and there is no telling how long they have been there. There are a lot of unknowns which some seem to have all the answers. There are some major problem areas such as the main colonies around Churchill. This area not only has a high nesting colony but also it's a staging area for birds that still nest hundreds of miles north so it gets hit much harder than most of the other areas. This is where you see the fenced off pens of lush grass vs. the vast mud flats due to over grazing. The tundra is extremely vast and the experts have expressed many times that population control on the tundra is not feasible. Could it be done in the states on one of the major refuges? Probably but the outcry from antis and hunters would be to overwhelming.


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## dblkluk

Heres an analogy for you scissor..

We have 3 horses. Our pasture is about 10 acres. 
Obviously they are not shoulder to shoulder while out to pasture. And actually, they can be spread quite far apart.
We have to watch the pasture towards the end of the summer to make sure its not overgrazed.

Same situation with the tundra..Birds don't have to be side by side for miles, to cause tremendous damage.

The thing is, my pasture will grow back fairly quick if I pull the horses off and moisture comes..not the same with the nesting grounds.


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## barebackjack

No, we couldnt shoot them. That would be wrong. What we could do is give the females birth control. That way a whole year class could be gone, and it would only cost 20-30 billion dollars.

I remember when the animal rights cookies wanted to do this with the deer in wisconsin and places back east, what a bunch of nuts! :roll:


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## scissorbill

Right, But we were told 10 years ago that the population was in iminent danger of collapse due to overgrazing, please explain. Also how many of you have actually seen the tundra as opposed to select pictures?Keep in mind in the 1940's we were not even able to tell where all the birds nested but we now have concluded that the population is at an all time high? Ask Some Inuit elders see what they say. Please all prostaffers weigh in on this.


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## dblkluk

> Please all prostaffers weigh in on this.


 :lol: :beer:


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## h2ofwlr

:laugh:

Say by chance does anyone have the 2008 winter census report survey of the S&Bs for the Midcontinent population? They do a Feb survey of the traditional wintering grounds. It usually is accomplanied by a graph showing past years. Just curious to see how big of a drop in numbers there was from 1 year ago because of the poor hatch last summer.

Otherwise it'll being in the main report in 6 weeks.


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## possumfoot

i would figure that the defining factor will be when winter sets in in the breeding grounds. from what i have read, 1 week could be the differance between a bumper hatch and a bust..

also. can anyone find a map that has the nesting areas highlighted?? for all the known colonies??


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## goose_caller

h2ofwlr said:


> :laugh:
> 
> Say by chance does anyone have the 2008 winter census report survey of the S&Bs for the Midcontinent population? They do a Feb survey of the traditional wintering grounds. It usually is accomplanied by a graph showing past years. Just curious to see how big of a drop in numbers there was from 1 year ago because of the poor hatch last summer.
> 
> Otherwise it'll being in the main report in 6 weeks.


That his another problem all in itself...."Traditional Wintering Grounds". I remember 7-8 years ago they did the counts for the lessor canada's in Texas and concluded the population had crashed and dropped our limit the following year from 5 birds to 3......what they did not take the time to figure out was what us idiots did is the birds hung north due to warm conditions....I called around all over SD, NE, KS, OK and talked to friends who said they have never seen numbers like this before....so did the population crash? Nope, the counters in all their wisdom did not look for the obvious locations. I give counts a margain of error of +-25% now.


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## Decoyer

What is considered the "traditional wintering grounds" for snows now? Back in the day it was in SE Texas, but they must take into account Arkansas and Southern Missouri now to? Just curious.


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## h2ofwlr

I do not know where they are doing the survey in the winter. Hopefully somebody can post up the answer.

More detailed info on the blizzards (resulting in a late spring) in the central Artic.
This quote is from Canuk from another site:

_This update is for the central arctic only (Queen Maud Gulf).

BAD. birds are now arriving but it is so late there will a low nesting effort at best and low clutch sizes.

Get used to killing Adult light geese if you are hunting in SK or AB._

FYI location of Queen Maud Gulf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Map_ ... Canada.png

Gjoa Haven is on the NE side of the Queen Maud Gulf. It is the island to the right of the arrow

Cambridge Bay is on the NW side of the gulf It is to the left of the arrowhead on the other side of the peninsula, about 1/4" to left of arrowhead on the map.



possumfoot said:


> i would figure that the defining factor will be when winter sets in in the breeding grounds. from what i have read, 1 week could be the differance between a bumper hatch and a bust..


Not really the main factor. Migration in the Fall is more dictated by length of day. Granted an early freeze up of say a week will hurt the Juvis. But the more deciding factor on the Juvi population is when they initiate nesting, meaning is it delayed. This it is far more important than Fall weather. If delayed too much, as Cunuk indicated, they may not even lay any eggs. FYI Canuk is a CWS biologist.


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## h2ofwlr

The news is getting worse by the day...

This is an excerpt from a news article about 2 teens that just paddled to Hudsons Bay: http://www.startribune.com/local/south/ ... tModules:3

_Snow was falling the day they began. *Snow kept the floatplane from picking them up for an extra day at the end. The last week was sleeting, raining, blowing and under 40 degrees.*

"It seemed like the whole world was never going to change," Colton said. "It was freezing when we started, and it seemed like we paddled right back into winter. I have never been more miserable."

They arrived Sunday afternoon at York Factory, a historic fur trade site preserved by the Canadian government. No one was home: *The post is usually staffed at the beginning of June, but the late spring has delayed its opening.*_

I did not know the south end of Hudsons Bay was a late spring too. I had heard the snow was gone the other week so assumed the geese would be on the nests.


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## cgreeny

I appreciate all of this info but it did snow/sleet in NWND on Sunday morning too. Does that mean all the ducks are totally up the creek too then? I agree tha later this drags out the less successful of a hatch, but what if a warm weather system rolls in there? We went from barely 50 to damn near 80 in one day. Isnt that possible too?


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## scissorbill

Once again ,Is this not good news? Is it not the objective of spring seasons ,e callers,"tundra saver" calls, ridiculous bag limits etc, to reduce the population? I think we need to be consistant here.As hunters are we really interested in the habitat or more disappointed that we will not have an easy time killing stupid immature snow geese? Or is this whole issue just made up nonsense ?


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## h2ofwlr

Greeny I think you are missing the point, have you seen ducks nesting ON the snow? That is what it happening up there, snow on the ground yet. That is why no one was at York factory yet--a late spring due to winterery conditions. The Snows "window of oppurtunity" to lay eggs and raisng them is a narrow time slot, not at all like down here in the upper plains where ducks can do a delayed or 2nd attempt nesting. Sure a warm up is possible, and likely will happen. But normally they are incubating already. The longer they delay nesting initiation, the pooorer the hatch

Scissors, yes that is the objective. But a bad hatch does not reduce the long term population becuase the breeders are still breeding next and forthcoming years. The key to the population control is to kill the adults (breeders) to reduce the long term population. As for what the "hunters" think, is not each person's perspective a bit different? I would think it is quite varied. I mentioned earlier why I like an average hatch, as I use the Juvis to lure in the adults. As when the Juvis come in circling and landing and are not shot at, the Adults then come into range, a follow the leader type of thing. I shoot 85% Adults over the years using this tactic. Perhaps I am in the minority on how I hunt. Likely newer guys will shoot away at whatever comes in range, nothing wrong with that as that is their choice.


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## dblkluk

> I mentioned earlier why I like an average hatch, as I use the Juvis to lure in the adults. As when the Juvis come in circling and landing and are not shot at, the Adults then come into range, a follow the leader type of thing. I shoot 85% Adults over the years using this tactic. Perhaps I am in the minority on how I hunt.


You are in the minority for sure. Of all the "kill shots" posted on the forums during the "good" hatch years, 99% of them are filled with gray birds.

Biologists have told us from the beginning, the object of the spring season is to stress the birds and not allow them to build fat reserves before arriving to the breeding grounds, thus decreasing the odds of successful hatches.

Its been said before and I agree, we will not bring down the populations (in any huge numbers) from hunting alone. Will it help? Absolutely.
The population has not increased since the CO started. But it hasn't dropped dramatically either..
I have feeling Mother Nature will take care of this on her own..but if it allows another few months of season and can help even in the least, I'm for it.


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## cgreeny

Actually H2fowler, I have seen ducks nesting on snow and freeze to death on the nest right here in good old ND so I guess you can go look that up in a book somewhere and tell me I am wrong again. Or maybe because you can put 1800 some lame reports on the site, I was looking at the glass 50/50 but maybe I am not entitled to my opinions on subjects you feel strongly about. Even if the hatch is a bust we still will go out and hunt snows, either way good or bad.


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## h2ofwlr

Greeny, I never said nor implied you nor anyone are not entitled to your opinions. We all can express our opinions. That is the best that the internet hunting sites have to offer us so we can learn from others.

But personally attacking me becuase you disagree is in poor form.

As Chris says: Debate the principles but leave the personal attacks out of it.


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## KEN W

> Biologists have told us form the beginning, the object of the spring season is to stress the birds and not allow them to build fat reserves before arriving to the breeding grounds, thus decreasing the odds of successful hatches.quote]
> 
> Exactly,which is why jump shooting may not be what decoy hunters want.But it is exactly what is needed to force the birds into using up fat reserves before they get to the tundra.Keep them moving with little food.


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## cgreeny

I guess I may have been out of line but, it seems you give little or no credit to any others information unless it comes from your own personal gospel. So sorry no more personal attacks as you put it, and as far as poor taste goes, keep up on your drought reports and everything else from the twin cities and dont credit anyone who actually is out here looking at conditions with his own eyes. Sorry everyone.


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## possumfoot

areas aroung the queen maud gulf are not going to be very productive this year.. that is sad news b/c there are a lot of rosses there.. on the other hand the manatoba birds are going to have a dencent year.. 
and h20's adult killing stratagy works very well.. the juvies make it easier to decoy the adults.. 
this is just a wild guess BUT
is it possible that a small hatch will cause a higher percentage of juvi birds to spend the entire migration w/ the adults??


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## goose_caller

KEN W said:


> Biologists have told us form the beginning, the object of the spring season is to stress the birds and not allow them to build fat reserves before arriving to the breeding grounds, thus decreasing the odds of successful hatches.quote]
> 
> Exactly,which is why jump shooting may not be what decoy hunters want.But it is exactly what is needed to force the birds into using up fat reserves before they get to the tundra.Keep them moving with little food.
Click to expand...

Makes ya wonder if we have a difference when them birds hit ND there is little pressure on the and when they jump the border into Canada there is pretty much none....I have seen some pretty fat birds south of the border before they spend 2-4 weeks north of it hogging it up.


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## sdgoosekiller

if you make some of those shirts up send me a pm ill take 4.


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## huntinND

> Scissors, yes that is the objective. But a bad hatch does not reduce the long term population becuase the breeders are still breeding next and forthcoming years. The key to the population control is to kill the adults (breeders) to reduce the long term population


I agree that killing the adults that will be nesting is key in reducing the population, but if there is little reproduction I think it would have to affect the population long term. Especially if there are several consecutive years of bad hatches. The juviniles that survive are going to be breeders in the future. Just like any wildlife population more offspring=a growth in the population. yes the breeders are still breeding, but if there was a huge hatch the number of breeders would go up, if there is a small hatch the number of breeders would vertually stay consistant. just my 2 cents


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## shooteminthelips

All I have to say is if you take the population of snow geese lets say 7 million. And lets say that there is a down year and only 20% are successful in nesting. That is 1.4 million snow geese that have successful hatches.


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## barebackjack

Its pretty simple fellas. To quickly reduce the population, you have to kill the adults.

If all your doing is killing most of the juvenile population each year, which we seem to be doing as the population has sort of stalmated. Than eventually the population will start to decline. Its just slower to see the results. Poor hatches help this out (make it easier for us hunters to put a bigger dent in the juvie population) and good hatches make it harder. But in the long term, if we keep hitting the juvie population hard, we will see an overall drop in population as the breeding population ages and becomes less effective.


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## SDwaterfowler

Is there any sort of average age range where an adult snow goose loses its breeding ability?


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## h2ofwlr

Excellent question. I hope somebody knows the answer to that one. I have read that they live to past 20YO, as many of the breeders are over 10YO. But do not remember reading at which point they loose their vitality to reproduce.


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## barebackjack

Ive heard (with no real scientific data to support it) that breeding potential decreases in the mid-teens. The optimum breeding ages are from about 4-12. Again, just what ive heard.


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## fungalsnowgoose

Um USFWS had the average age of birds in the flock at 7 years old a few years ago and they are now claiming that the age is dropping, due to the increased harvest. I don't know how many of the breeders are actually over ten years but I would think if the avergage age is 7 it can't be too many.


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## h2ofwlr

I am not a mathatician, but lets look at the basics.

Say there are 7M Snows. And 5 Million are adult breeders. Say they lay 4 eggs, of which 2 develop to the point that they make it down to the prairies. So there is then 2M non breeders, 5M adult breeders, and 5M juvis = 12M geese. Another words for an average age of 7 YO, there would need to be 5M 14YO adults to equal out the less than 1 YO Juvis.

I may be off on actual #s, but I think you get the point I am making. The Juvi #s do effect the average age. If there is 1 Juvi for 2 adult breeders, then their age drops to 10YO.

Makes a guy go Hmmmm, eh? food for thought anyway...

Maybe some one has the actual (VS hypothetic #s above) ratio of Juvis to adult breeders making it to the prairies each fall on an average year?


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## KEN W

Depends on when they do the average age analysis.If they do it in the spring......those 5 mil. young aren't there yet.Drops the numbers dramatically.


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## Traxion

From the looks of the NOAA Fire Detect map some of those SOB's might be suffereing from smoke inhalation! Fires all over N Sask. We're super smoky right now in W SD, can't imagine what it's like farther north!


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## H2O_Tech

Average age is a SWAG from wing-bee data, banding data, and band recovery data. You can model age structures and crank out reports, scenarios, and so forth. Based on the long-term data on the MCSG pop, the models are fairly robust. The statisticians have fun with these data sets, and can claim trends, such as a declining average age, with a fair amount of confidence.


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## h2ofwlr

Ok that sounds good. So what is the average ratio of Juvis to adult in the fall of the mid continent Snows?


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## H2O_Tech

2006 data...all flavors (snow + blue + ross)

TX pre-season data = %imm 24.9%
LA pre-season data = %imm 29.4%

Western central Flyway = % imm 24%

The above data is from visual counts.

looking at harvest data (Wing bee)...

Harvest data age ratio Imm:Adult (2006)
Central Flyway
Snow goose = 0.49
Blue goose = 0.53
Ross goose = 1.37

Lowest ratio (reflects hatch) was 2004
Snow goose = 0.20
Blue goose = 0.17
Ross goose = 0.24


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## sljoe

BISMARCK, N.D. -- What a difference a year makes.

Last year the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's annual Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey painted a rosy picture -- Canada had the fourth-highest pond count in recorded history and five duck species were in record or near-record territory.

The 2008 breeding population survey, released this week by the Service, shows a 39 percent decline in Canadian ponds and double-digit percentage drops for 5 of the 10 most abundant species in the traditional survey area.

"Overall, the duck numbers aren't as bad as they might have been, but don't look for much production this year," says Dr. Frank Rohwer of Louisiana State University, Delta Waterfowl's scientific director. "Those areas across the breeding grounds that are wet are not the productive areas, and the most productive areas are dry...real dry...bad dry."

The combined May pond count for the United States and Canada was 4.4 million, a drop of 37 percent from a year ago and 10 percent below the long-term average. The mallard population was surprisingly strong, down just 7 percent to 7.7 million breeding birds. Total ducks dropped 9 percent from 41.1 million to 37.3 million.

Among the biggest surprises of the survey was the canvasback, which fell 44 percent from last year's record 865,000 to just 489,000 this year.

Northern shoveler dropped 23 percent from last year's record high of 4.6 million to just 3.5 million, northern pintail fell 22 percent from 3.3 million to 2.6 million, gadwall slipped 19 percent from 3.4 million to 2.7 million and American wigeon numbers slid 11 percent from 2.8 million to 2.5 million.

On the positive side of the ledger, scaup numbers jumped 8 percent from 3.5 million to 3.7 million, making it the third most-abundant species; redheads rose 5 percent from last year's record high of 1 million to 1.1 million, and green-winged teal edged up 3 percent to 2.9 million, the second-highest population ever for the No. 2 bird in harvest.

Dry conditions across the prairie breeding grounds took a toll on mallard numbers. The eastern Dakota mallard population was down 24 percent from last year, Montana and the western Dakotas slipped 36 percent and Saskatchewan was down 12 percent. Increases in mallard numbers were seen in the "bush" regions of the northern provinces, suggesting the birds over-flew the prairies.

"When the prairies are dry, a lot of mallards will over-fly the prairies and sit out the summer up north," says Delta President Rob Olson. "We don't get a lot of production from those birds."

Olson says mallard and pintail numbers in Alberta continue to be a concern for Delta scientists. "Alberta's pond count is still 15 percent above the long-term average, but the pintail population there is down 66 percent from its long-term average and mallards are 20 percent below their long-term average.

"When Alberta is the one bright spot in terms of spring habitat, we would have hoped for a better result there. We haven't seen a response for mallards or pintails in Alberta, despite good wetland conditions."

The story is different in the eastern Dakotas, where the mallard population is still 75 percent higher than its long-term average despite a 16-percent drop in wetlands long-term. "That's a function of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), which put millions of acres of undisturbed grass nesting cover on the landscape," Olson says.

"The mallard breeding population across the duck factory is still above the long-term average because of CRP, but at the rate we're losing CRP, it's going to be difficult to maintain those levels."

In the eastern survey area, mallards were unchanged at 450,000, black ducks dropped 13 percent to 496,000, green-winged teal were up fractionally at 261,000, ring-necked ducks dropped 17 percent to 551,000, goldeneyes fell 7 percent at 424,000, mergansers dropped 4 percent to 412,000, wigeon lost 40 percent to 8,000, scaup rose 4 percent to 32,000, bufflehead climbed 93 percent to 30,000 and scoters lost 17 percent to 86,000.

The survey is conducted annually by the Fish and Wildlife Service and the Canadian Wildlife Service


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## shooteminthelips

I can fix the duck problem. If they would quit letting people in Canada kill so many hens we wouldnt have this problem. When in Canada I have seen more hens on the cleaning table then drakes for the most part. Don't blame people if they are in their limits, but they need to just not allow so many to be killed! This includes Mallards, Pintails, and Wiegon.


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## H2O_Tech

> I can fix the duck problem.


Then fix it on the Duck Forum...sheesh.

Won't even begin to discuss your belief in hen shooting as the salvation.


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## shooteminthelips

There is nothing discuss I am right you are wrong. Dead hens dont lay eggs.


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## H2O_Tech

A mind is a terrible thing...


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## goosehunternd

Now if everybody would just stop shooting the female geese we would be in business oke:


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## shooteminthelips

No but the post with the numbers were all about ducks. I was commenting on that.


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## h2ofwlr

Well Mainerd, this is the SNOW GOOSE FORUM.







on last 7 posts

Please go to the DUCK FORUM for duck related discussions. :splat:


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## Trapperjack

Any real updates yet instead of just guesses? There should be something coming out of Canada pretty soon.


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## SDwaterfowler

Posted by Canuk (a waterfowl biologist) on another forum:

From 2008 CWS July report:

Geese in the Central Canadian Arctic
(Alisauskas, EC-S&T, pers. comm.)

Based on general impressions of conditions in the central Canadian Arctic, timing of nesting appears to have taken place in 2008 within 2 days of the long-term average. Preliminary estimates for both Ross's Geese and Lesser Snow Geese suggest a mean nest initiation date of June 12 compared to a long-term average of June 10 or 11 for 1991 to 2007. The record late date of 17 June 2007 for Ross's Geese at Karrak Lake resulted in a only 7% juveniles among Ross's Geese migrating through Saskatchewan in fall of 2007; similarly, late nesting by other species resulted in only 5% juveniles among both Snow and White-fronted Geese in 2007. Notwithstanding favourable weather for the rest of the incubation and brood-rearing periods, the percentage of juveniles in the 2008 fall flight of Ross's Geese through Saskatchewan, predicted from the mean 2008 nest initiation date, is expected to be close to the long-term average of about 20-30%. Likewise, production of Snow Geese, Whitefronted Geese and short-grass prairie Canada Geese/Cackling Geese from Queen Maud Gulf should also be average in 2008.

Population estimates for nesting Ross's Geese and Lesser Snow Geese are not yet available for 2008. Nevertheless, population growth over the longer term seems unabated for Ross's Geese, but has slowed down for Lesser Snow Geese at Karrak Lake. For example, the number of light geese that nested on Karrak Lake in 2007 was about 1.16 million, with record breeding numbers of Ross's Geese (800 984), although Lesser Snow Geese declined by 38% from 579 858 in 2006 to 358 029 in 2007. Much of the decline in nesting Snow Geese was related to the very late nesting conditions of 2007, which resulted in fewer Snow Geese attempting to nest. From 1993 to 2007, the longterm average rate of annual population growth at Karrak Lake was 11% for Ross's Geese and 6.5% for Lesser Snow Geese. The combined longterm average was 8.6%.

Greater Snow Geese
(Lefebvre, CWS, and Gauthier, Laval University, pers.
comm.)

Spring snow melt at the Bylot Island colony was very early (actually one of the earliest snow-melts in the last 20 years) due to a thin snow pack and very warm temperatures in May. This situation apparently prevailed over most of Baffin Island. As a result, when geese arrived on Bylot Island, most nest sites were already snow-free and thus they could initiate laying very rapidly. The peak laying date, based on a preliminary sample of nests, was June 10th, which is 2 days earlier than the long-term average and 6 days earlier than last year. The density of geese in the colony is very high, and is the highest recorded since at least 2003. Mean clutch size is 3.98, above the long-term average of 3.71. At the mid-incubation visit, only 13% of the nests (n = 207) had been predated, which is quite low. This suggests that nesting success should be very high. The predation rate is low, probably because of the large reproductive effort of geese and the high abundance of lemmings, which provide ample food for predators. There are some indications that lemmings are very abundant in several areas of Baffin Island, suggesting that the lemming peak is widespread. Consequently, the preliminary forecast for the productivity of greater snow geese this year is very good and we should expect a fall flock that is greater than the long-term average.

Although good news for Greater Snow goose hunters, there is a hint that nesting conditions might be favourable for the MCP lesser snows on Baffin.


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## shooteminthelips

From 2008 CWS July report:

Geese in the Central Canadian Arctic
(Alisauskas, EC-S&T, pers. comm.)

Based on general impressions of conditions in the central Canadian Arctic, timing of nesting appears to have taken place in 2008 within 2 days of the long-term average. Preliminary estimates for both Ross's Geese and Lesser Snow Geese suggest a mean nest initiation date of June 12 compared to a long-term average of June 10 or 11 for 1991 to 2007. The record late date of 17 June 2007 for Ross's Geese at Karrak Lake resulted in a only 7% juveniles among Ross's Geese migrating through Saskatchewan in fall of 2007; similarly, late nesting by other species resulted in only 5% juveniles among both Snow and White-fronted Geese in 2007. Notwithstanding favourable weather for the rest of the incubation and brood-rearing periods, the percentage of juveniles in the 2008 fall flight of Ross's Geese through Saskatchewan, predicted from the mean 2008 nest initiation date, is expected to be close to the long-term average of about 20-30%. Likewise, production of Snow Geese, Whitefronted Geese and short-grass prairie Canada Geese/Cackling Geese from Queen Maud Gulf should also be average in 2008.

Population estimates for nesting Ross's Geese and Lesser Snow Geese are not yet available for 2008. Nevertheless, population growth over the longer term seems unabated for Ross's Geese, but has slowed down for Lesser Snow Geese at Karrak Lake. For example, the number of light geese that nested on Karrak Lake in 2007 was about 1.16 million, with record breeding numbers of Ross's Geese (800 984), although Lesser Snow Geese declined by 38% from 579 858 in 2006 to 358 029 in 2007. Much of the decline in nesting Snow Geese was related to the very late nesting conditions of 2007, which resulted in fewer Snow Geese attempting to nest. From 1993 to 2007, the longterm average rate of annual population growth at Karrak Lake was 11% for Ross's Geese and 6.5% for Lesser Snow Geese. The combined longterm average was 8.6%.

Sound like it should be good to me!


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## h2ofwlr

I believe most everybody will be happy with that report as an average flight is good enough for me and most of guys.

Should be interesting to see what the other area reports will be like.

BTW, The Queen Maude gulf is where they still were having blizzards the 1st week of June, so surprised they hit the nests before June 17 like last year.


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## goosebusters

FPP, h2o you really left yourself open for that one!!!


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## goose_caller

The Dingleberry crop in texas must have done a 180 in the last week too. :lol:


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## Ima870man

Take for what it is worth:
http://www.fws.gov/migratorybirds/repor ... rt2008.pdf

Ima870man


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## dblkluk

Great link Jeff!

Sounds like the nesting success was better than last year..

Not outstanding but not dismal either...


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## h2ofwlr

Page 42-44

*Mid-continent Population Light Geese (MCP):*
This population includes lesser snow geese and in-
creasing numbers of Ross' geese. Geese of the MCP
nest on Ban and Southampton Islands, with smaller
numbers nesting along the west coast of Hudson Bay
(Figure 15). These geese winter primarily in eastern
Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. During the 2008
MWS, biologists counted 2,455,100 light geese, 16% 
fewer than in 2007 (Figure 14(b)). Winter indices
during 1999{2008 indicated no annual trend in this
population (P = 0.923). May temperatures in the
eastern Canadian Arctic were 4{5C above average,
June temperatures were near average, and an early
snowmelt was reported for much of Ban Island.
On Southampton Island, June snowfall was greater
than average and biologists there reported that geese
arrived early, but nesting was initiated with near aver-
age timing. Limited observations at smaller southerly
colonies suggested that nesting phenology was slightly
later than average near the McConnell River and near
average on Akimiski Island. Reports from La Perouse
Bay suggested poor production due to 
ooding and harsh spring conditions. Average or better production
was expected from the large northern colonies and
should produce a fall 
flight with a higher proportion
of young than in 2007.


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