# The next blizzard?



## swedeole (May 21, 2007)

Read this from the NWS - just some discussion going on right now, but it might be something major.....

"Main long term forecast challenge in the coming days will be the 
potential for another large storm system early next week (23-25 
march). GFS/ECMWF/Gem all show *tremendous* amount of Pacific energy 
crashing onto the West Coast beginning next Sunday...thereafter 
wrapping itself up somewhere across the northern plains. At this 
time...there exists large track and timing differences...but given 
the nearing river flood season...this system will need to be watched 
very closely."


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## swedeole (May 21, 2007)

Not looking like a blizzard now - but WET!

The recent warm weather has started the Spring snow melt process.
As most rural drainage channels... rivers and streams remain clogged
with ice... look for additional overland movement of water... with
increased ponding in low spots. Warm weather will likely not be
sufficient to start the real snow melt flood for the main river
system until later this week and into the weekend.

The remainder of this week should see quiet weather with no
significant precipitation expected. Flood fighters should make
maximum use of this period to accelerate dike preparations.

*A powerful storm system currently well off the West Coast of the
United States is forecast to move inland late this week. It will then
spread into the plains states by early next week. Ahead of this
storm... strong south winds should develop... bringing warm and moist air
into the region. This may set the stage for showers and possibly
thunderstorms late this weekend into early next week. As the low
pressure center moves through... significant precipitation amounts
in the form of rain or rain mixed with snow may occur.*

If this storm develops as currently forecast... it could have a
significant impact on area flooding. Residents of the Red River
valley region are advised to pay close attention to later
forecasts. Your noaa's National Weather Service will continue to
monitor this situation and provide updated statements and
forecasts on this developing system.


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## swedeole (May 21, 2007)

The potential for a powerful storm system to influence the region
remains in the forecast for late this coming weekend into the
early part of next week. The cyclone is expected to draw warm... moist
and unstable air into the northern plains states. As a
result... this should set the stage for showers and possible
thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms may produce locally
heavy rainfall which could aggravate flooding. A widespread area
of significant precipitation is also possible with this storm
system. As the low pressure center moves through... precipitation
should change from rain to snow as colder air is drawn southward.

If this storm develops as currently forecast... it could have a
substantial impact on area flooding across the Red River valley
and the Devils Lake basin. Due to the storm being several days
away... a slight change in the forecast track could shift the area
which would see the heaviest precipitation totals. Residents in
the Red River valley are advised to pay close attention to later
forecasts. Your noaa's National Weather Service will continue to
monitor this situation and provide updated statements and
forecasts on this developing storm system.


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## swedeole (May 21, 2007)

Sounds like cold and snow next week - just in time to stall those birds in the Dakotas for a while.

Should be a great weekend.

Long term [sun-wed]... 
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are beginning to agree much better with timing and 
intensity of the system early next week. The latest GFS runs slow 
down the progression of this system keeping the surface low across 
the western Continental U.S. Well into Monday. Continued isolated thunderstorm 
wording on Monday as showalters dip below zero and a strengthening low 
level jet makes its way into the southern forecast area. Increased 
probability of precipitation late Monday and Tuesday into the 50-60 range as the low continues 
tracking to the northeast. Gradually shifted to a rain/snow mix 
early Tuesday then changing to all snow by Wednesday. Finally started to taper 
off probability of precipitation on Thursday. Temperatures will be well above average heading 
into the beginning of the week. However...behind the system there 
will be a pretty good temperature drop with the possibility for some 
accumulating snow.


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## swedeole (May 21, 2007)

Sounds like it's coming.....

Statement as of 2:52 PM MDT on March 20, 2009

... A significant Spring storm system will impact the northern
plains later this weekend through early to middle portions of
next week...

The potential for a significant amount of rain and snow is
becoming increasingly likely across west and central North Dakota
as forecast model guidance continues to indicate a powerful Spring
storm system impacting the northern plains region beginning later
this weekend... and possibly lasting into middle portions of next
week. Ahead of this storm... warm temperatures in the 50s and 60s
are expected Saturday and Sunday over west and central North
Dakota... which will result in further increasing area snow melt.
Chances for thunderstorms are also forecast both Saturday and
Sunday mainly over the western third of the state.
Furthermore... moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast to develop
around the Highway 83 corridor and points east Sunday into Sunday
night. All of these factors will act to aggravate ongoing flooding
concerns.

As the main storm system moves into the plains on
Monday... moderate to heavy precipitation is forecast to develop
from south to north Monday afternoon into Monday
evening... increasing in intensity and becoming more widespread
overnight Monday and throughout the day on Tuesday. As colder air
is pulled into the storm Monday into Tuesday... rain will change
over to snow west to east and become heavy at times with possible
significant accumulations. However... there is still much
uncertainty in regards to when and where this rain to snow
changeover will occur. In addition... strong northerly winds are
forecast to develop Monday as the storm moves into the local
area... and will persist through Tuesday night and possibly into
Wednesday.

This powerful Spring storm system has potential to bring high
precipitation amounts in the form of heavy snow... heavy rain and
thunderstorms to much of west and central North Dakota Sunday
through Wednesday. Users of this information are highly encouraged
to take precautionary steps to protect life and property... and to
check back frequently for updates.


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## snowbus (Mar 7, 2007)

Ya better hunt this weekend while the temps are mild - although very little wind.

NW Winds all next week will slow the migration plus who knows where the snowline will setup.

Good post


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## bluebill25 (Mar 29, 2006)

I looked at the weather.com and even after the snow/rain then it stays cool for five days after in the ten day forecast. thats for nothern nd where I go each year. sounds like the migration could be a week or so late


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## swedeole (May 21, 2007)

It's going to be an absolute mess out there Monday and Tuesday. Gonna be hard keeping the Sillosock bags and windsocks looking good while decoying, but with the winds and heavy rain should offer some good low pass-shooting opportunities. Possible thunderstorms too - very unstable air mass:

For Mon/Tue...the mother low will slowly move into the area and 
produce the potential for significant precipitation. The Devils 
Lake basin may change over to snow late in the day Tuesday...but the 
European model (ecmwf) keeps it all rain through the day Tuesday...and will continue 
with rain through the day. This system is very complex...and a 
shift of only 50 miles east or west will play a large part on who 
gets how much precipitation and what the form is...stay tuned.

&&

Hydrology... 
an areal Flood Watch has been issued to cover the overland flooding 
threat that looms with the coming storm. Virtually all of this 
moisture will run off...so we will be conveying this threat in a big 
way. There Haven/T been enough melting degree days to get snow melt 
really going in the Sheyenne or Devils Lake basins...and the snow 
won't absorb the rain well. We are maintaining persistence in the 
river forecasts for the most part...with uncertainty in how much 
water will get into the system from the fields/ditches before the 
freeze/thaw cycle slows again after Tuesday. The stage forecasts are 
taking in average 1-1.5 inch moisture values...much of which is 
going into the river models as liquid. This will mostly impact the 
timing of crests...which we will continually re-evaluate. If temperatures 
do struggle to 32 f Wednesday-Friday the rivers could steady for a while.


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## remidog (Oct 15, 2008)

im heading out there tomorrow mid day hopefully it wont be to bad i need to find shelter


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## dougdoug (Mar 12, 2009)

im thinking its way to warm for a blizzard but in SD things can change in minites My trucks stuck in a field been there since since thurs i kno im dumb dont need to hear it any more


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## lookin4theX (Mar 3, 2009)

What R the birds doing in this nasty weather? Will they just roost for a few days and then feed like crazy when it gets better out, or will they just feed in the rain and get lazy when the weather quits raining snowing or what ever its trying to do?


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## Andrew Bremseth (Aug 1, 2007)

lookin4theX said:


> What R the birds doing in this nasty weather? Will they just roost for a few days and then feed like crazy when it gets better out, or will they just feed in the rain and get lazy when the weather quits raining snowing or what ever its trying to do?


I don't mean to sound like a dick, but of course they will feed. They can't go days without feeding, especially now, they need to get some energy built up for their long flight north!


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## ValleyCityHunter2008 (Jan 13, 2008)

lookin4theX said:


> What R the birds doing in this nasty weather? Will they just roost for a few days and then feed like crazy when it gets better out, or will they just feed in the rain and get lazy when the weather quits raining snowing or what ever its trying to do?


If it gets cold out they just head south, if its raining they just stick around and feed like normal. Now if it's lightning out they feed before the storm and after but not usually during.


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